2024: Asia’s year of elections

By Riyaz ul Khaliq

ISTANBUL (AA) – The Asia-Pacific region is set for a democratically decisive year as tens of millions of voters in several countries will head to the polls to pick new governments and leaders.

Starting in the first week of January, parliamentary and presidential elections will be held in seven places across the world’s most populous continent – India, Indonesia, South Korea, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Taiwan and the Solomon Islands.

- Bangladesh

Home to around 170 million people, the South Asian nation is facing the prospect of “one-sided” general elections on Jan. 7, with the opposition led by the Bangladesh National Party announcing that it would boycott the vote because its demand for an interim government was not fulfilled.

The ruling Awami League party, in power since 2009, rejected the demand on the basis that the clause for caretaker setup to conduct the elections was removed from the Constitution in 2011.

Over 119 million – 119,151,440 – people are eligible to vote in Bangladesh.

The country’s parliament, locally known as the Sangsad, has 350 members, of which 300 are directly elected while the rest of the seats are reserved for women.

The five-year term of the current lawmakers will expire on Jan. 29.

Zakaria Polash, a political analyst and author based in the capital Dhaka, told Anadolu that a “big issue” for voters like him is what he called the “one-sided” nature of the upcoming polls, referring to the boycott by opposition forces.

“The opposition parties did participate in the 2018 elections but they did not find a proper environment and level playing field,” he said.

The opposition has accused the Awami League and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina of skewing the electoral field, charges that the government has repeatedly denied.

Polash also pointed to external pressures, saying that Hasina’s government is “very consciously” navigating possible influences from countries like India and China, nations that he said have an “aligned” and “mutual” interest in Bangladesh.

- Taiwan

Taiwan’s eighth presidential election is being viewed as one of the most consequential in its recent history.

Around 19 million people are registered to vote in the island nation of some 24 million.

The election is a three-way contest pitting William Lai Ching-te, the current vice-president from the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), against the opposition Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih and Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) nominee Ko Wen-je.

Under DPP, the island nation, which China considers a “breakaway province,” has seen more engagement with Western nations led by the US, much to the chagrin of Beijing.

Kuomintang, on the other hand, has campaigned for more engagement with Beijing.

In the run-up to the Jan. 13 polls, Taiwan has been questioning residents for visiting China, according to local media reports, with the government also warning of election interference by Beijing.

According to Taiwan-based China observer and academic Chienyu Shih, the competition between the US and China directly “affects Taiwan’s political development.”

“The current presidential candidates of Taiwan’s three major political parties all support the status quo across the Taiwan Strait (albeit in different ways and to varying degrees), which means that it is impossible to move toward ‘unification’ or to declare political independence,” he told Anadolu.

Chienyu, a research fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defense and Security Research, stressed the need for Beijing to “resume dialogue” with whoever comes to power in Taiwan.

“No matter which side wins, if Beijing really wants to break the dull status quo, it should try to dialogue with Taipei and normalize relations,” he said.

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- Pakistan

Pakistan’s checkered history of elections has seen the South Asian nation plunging into political instability again and again.

The country of around 250 million is expected to hold general elections on Feb. 8, with around 127 million eligible voters choosing lawmakers for the 342-seat National Assembly, the lower house of Parliament.

Of these, 272 lawmakers are directly elected for a term of five years, while 60 seats are reserved for women, along with 10 seats for religious minorities.

Pakistan has been in the throes of political and economic crises since the government of former Prime Minister Imran Khan, now in jail, was removed through a no-confidence vote in April 2022.

The coming elections are expected to be a contest between Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party, three-time former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz, and the Pakistan People’s Party led by former President Asif Ali Zardari.

Both Khan and Sharif have been disqualified from holding political office, so their role in any future governments still remain unclear.

- Indonesia

Indonesia, the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation of around 274 million people, will elect a new president on Feb. 14 to succeed Joko Widodo.

More than 204 million voters across 38 provinces will also elect a new vice-president, lawmakers for the bicameral parliament, known as the People’s Consultative Assembly, as well as members of provincial legislative bodies.

At least 18 national political parties and six regional parties are contesting the elections.

There are three main candidates for president, including incumbent Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto.

The 72-year-old former military general represents the Gerindra Party, and has Widodo’s eldest son Gibran Rakabuming Raka, 36, as his running mate for the post of vice-president.

Ganjar Pranowo of Widodo’s Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle is the second candidate, with Mahfud MD as his running mate, while the third pair is Anies Baswedan of Nasdem Party and Muhaimin Iskandar of the National Awakening Party.

A runoff is scheduled for June if the first round proves inconclusive, while the next president will take office in October.

- South Korea

South Korea will hold elections for its 300-member opposition-dominated parliament, known as the National Assembly, on April 10.

The opposition Democratic Party (DP) currently has 167 lawmakers, while the ruling People Power Party (PPP) of President Yoon Suk-yeol has 112 seats.

South Korea’s elections have been in the global spotlight since Jan. 2, when DP leader Lee Jae-myung was stabbed in the neck in the southern port city of Busan.

The party has called the incident an “act of political terror.”

- Solomon Islands

With a population of close to 800,000, the Solomon Islands will hold delayed elections in April to elect its 12th Parliament for a four-year term.

The polls were originally planned for 2023 but delayed due to the Pacific Games, which the island nation hosted between October and December last year.

The 50-member parliament endorsed the decision of Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, who formed the Democratic Coalition Government for Advancement after the 2019 elections.

His government oversaw the severance of diplomatic ties with Taiwan and increased engagement with China, with which it also signed a security pact, triggering widespread criticism from the US and its allies in the region.

- India

This spring, the globe’s most populous nation will see the largest number of eligible voters in the world cast their ballots to elect the country’s 17th Parliament.

The main contest is between the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of two-time Prime Minister Narendra Modi and INDIA, an electoral coalition of 28 political parties led by the Indian National Congress.

Over 600 million eligible voters will elect 545 lawmakers between April and May.

With the ruling party winning key provincial polls last fall, observers say Modi is “highly likely” to return to power in the upcoming elections.

If that happens, “there will be continuity in domestic and foreign policy,” according to Praveen Donthi, senior India analyst at the International Crisis Group.

He said Modi’s political reputation “is closely tied to sovereign assertion and power projection abroad.”

Thus, under BJP, Donthi said India will “continue to assert its presence on the global stage and push multilateralism under the strategic autonomy policy imperative.”

He also does not expect any change in India’s stance toward neighbor and rival Pakistan “as long as the border crisis with China continues, which is showing no signs of normalizing.”​​​​​​​

“In essence, the gap between India’s rising power status globally and the dilution of democratic processes domestically is likely to grow at a faster rate,” he said.