2024 could be a really exciting year for Türkiye: UK economist

By Elif Tugtekin and Tufan Aktas

ISTANBUL (AA) – Several factors indicate a positive turn for the Turkish economy and next year could be a “really exciting” time for the country, a senior emerging market strategist said on Saturday.

"2024 could be a really exciting year for Türkiye," Timothy Ash, London-based senior emerging markets sovereign strategist at RBC BlueBay Asset Management, told Anadolu in an exclusive interview.

Ash sees a positive shift, describing the current state as a much-improved relationship, fostering optimism for a remarkable year ahead.

Despite previous challenges in "macroeconomic stability," he highlighted the positive turn with the new economic policy team, led by Mehmet Simsek, Türkiye's treasury and finance minister, and Hafize Gaye Erkan, governor of Türkiye’s Central Bank, with their "good, comprehensive, convincing policies."

“We (Türkiye) have had a period of difficult relations with the Western countries and international capital markets. Now I think we're back to a much better relationship,” he said.

In this regard, international investors are increasingly recognizing Türkiye as a promising investment destination, drawn by the newfound stability and confidence instilled by the strategic economic policies put forth by Simsek and Erkan.

- ‘International business wants Türkiye back’

Ash expressed confidence in Türkiye's economic trajectory, adding: “We will see disinflation. We'll see inflation fall. It will begin to stabilize the lira. And I think that will bring money back to Türkiye.”

He believed these factors, coupled with Türkiye’s strategic location, would play a vital role in drawing international interest. He asserted: "International business wants Türkiye back; it wants to invest in Türkiye."

Ash pointed out that Türkiye has made significant “strides in the development and deployment of drone technology,” and military-industrial capabilities, deeming them "exciting" sectors ripe for substantial growth and attractive to potential investors. Additionally, Ash alluded to the potential presence of Elon Musk at Techno Fest, suggesting a connection to dynamic developments in electric vehicles and cutting-edge technology.

Beyond technology, “Türkiye has made huge progress in the last 10 years in terms of the numbers of tourists, and improvements in the quality of services," he stressed.

Noting the remarkable earnings from tourism, its positive impact on growth, and job creation, he said: “It's good for the current account, which feeds back into macro-financial stability."

Due to these achievements, he noted that Türkiye has become a standout and captivating subject at international conferences.

“Türkiye has a traditional manufacturing base, white goods, durable goods, with good relationships with Western countries, which is very important,” he added. Acknowledging historical foreign direct investments from Western companies into traditional Turkish groups, he noted that this enduring relationship remains intact.

- ‘West needs to be more balanced’

Ash also addressed the ongoing conflict between Israel and Palestine, highlighting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's criticism of Israel, a stance that has diverged from the approach taken by some Western countries.

However, he suggested that upon careful consideration, President Erdogan's comments appear "fair" and "appreciated by a lot of global south and Muslim world."

This nuanced perspective recognizes the complexity of the situation and implies that the "West needs to be more balanced" and adopt a thoughtful approach to the ongoing conflict.

Expressing concerns, he said both Israelis and Palestinians "have a rightful claim to a just peace settlement," and despite the challenges, viable solutions exist through increased engagement, with hopes for Türkiye to play a constructive role in the process.