ANALYSIS - Italy hopes for normalization after COVID-19 stroke

By Michelangelo Guida

- The writer is a faculty member at the Department of Political Science and International Relations at Istanbul 29 May University in Turkey.

ISTANBUL (AA) - Italians have never waited for Easter with this much excitement. Of course, at this time, when a lot of families live in their homes with the fear of illness or mourning for their loved ones, they will sit alone at tables and no one will be cheerful on April 12, the day of the celebration of the resurrection.

After a month-and-a-half of quarantine, and after the graph of case increases finally began to move horizontally, the government decided to relax curfew on the next day of Easter. However, the science board's instructions are very clear: even if you leave the house, you can gradually return to normal life, provided that social distance is taken into serious consideration and masks are worn in public places.

These days, the Italian people, who are excited about the religious holiday, are also full of anger. Italians feel that they have been left alone in their most difficult moments by friendly countries and that have been ridiculed for experiencing this crisis before other developed countries. But the crisis is unfolding in the U.K. or U.S. as well. With these sentiments, the health sector, economy, international political relations, and also how to rebuild trust between peoples after this pandemic would all be of concern.

After the Second World War, Italy, like many other countries, had built a comprehensive welfare state. Before this crisis, the health sector was also a major source of pride for this welfare state. On the other hand, in this crisis, despite the enormous sacrifices of the health workers, some inadequacies emerged in the sector in general. Since the 1990s, the health sector has been very weak. In 2017, a thousand institutions of the National Health Sector (52% of which are publicly owned) had a capacity of approximately 191,000 beds, which means 3.6 beds per 1,000 people. But considering the EU average of 5 beds per 1,000 people, the capacities of the mentioned hospitals are insufficient. Ten years ago, the average bed capacity was 4.3 per thousand, while in 1998 it was 5.8 per thousand. So despite the aging of the population, it is clear that there has been a drastic reduction in the number of beds in the health sector. In the context of the budget tightening policies, the state put trust in the investments of the private sector in this area and has restricted the allocated budget to its hospitals. Naturally, the private sector has chosen more profitable areas and avoided investing in intensive care units, which would be the most needed area during such crises, because of the thought that both the costs and risks would be high. As a result, Italy has only 13 intensive care beds for every 100,000 citizens. Turkey, one of the developing countries, ranks first among European countries with 40 beds for every 100,000 citizens.

These numbers demonstrate that Italy has to speed up its investments in the health sector, again. On the other hand, road infrastructure shortages in recent months and the resulting accidents indicate that the difficulties and delays of public investment have become commonplace. For example, the metro line in Naples, one of the largest cities on the peninsula, was planned in the 1960s when the economic growth was taking place, but its construction could only be started in 1976. The first part of the metro opened for service in 1993, when the welfare level was still high, while the rest is expected to be completed in the coming months amid the economic recession. Unfortunately, this kind of investment adventure in Italy is not considered abnormal. Moreover, the painful experience of COVID-19 may not have the power to bring about the cultural, legal and economic transformation necessary to change this course.

The democratic constitutional regime of Italy is based on the system “regionalismo” (regionalism), which provides autonomy for 20 regions. Even though the health sector is connected through national coordination, actually it stands among the responsibilities of the regions. Because of this reason, there are serious differences between regions in terms of capability, capacity and investments. The health sector of the Lombardy region, which is most affected by the virus, is one of the best in the country. In Sicily, where health care is the worst, the governor is trying to protect the region by closing all the sea routes connecting the island to the mainland.

After the Easter feast, Italians will also consider their livelihoods. Since there is no movement and no shopping these days, there is a very serious decline in the demand in the markets. On the other hand, when the factories are closed or the international supply chain is disrupted, the supply will decrease and the economy will shrink. It will undoubtedly be low-income citizens who will be most affected by this situation. The state provided many financial aids as a precaution to subsistence woes during the crisis. The EU has given up its fiscal discipline policy and given the green light to the budget deficit that would make these supports possible. But despite the historic change in that policy, the companies' finances will not be as good as it used to be after the quarantine. During the global crisis in 2008, states provided nationalization and low-cost resources to prevent companies from going bankrupt. The European Central Bank (ECB), headed by Italy's Mario Draghi, had bought up member states' public debt, dividing the risk of the fragile economies among all the EU countries.

A similar application is now being requested to share the risk. Italian politicians have been negative about the European Central Bank's demand to issue bonds to be called "Eurobonds", or "coronabonds". For the first time, 10 members of the union, including France, which represents 60% of the combined gross national product, acted separately from Germany and supported Italy's demands in a joint move. However, with the objections of the Northern European countries and most of all Germany, the European Commission has not been able to make any decisions in this direction as it has already acted on the vital issues. These deep differences of opinion, as previously seen in the refugee crisis or the Libyan problem, are also driving the EU into inaction in the COVID-19 crisis, undermining the continent's global position.

Even Russia, trying to regain its global power, has sent tons of supplies and biological warfare experts to Italy with a never-before-seen military parade. Moreover, even two countries that do not aspire to global power, such as Cuba or Albania, have sent 35 and 30 volunteer doctors as aid, respectively, so why the more prosperous countries have not behaved similarly is very suggestive. Rather, why can't Germany, which has brought Italian patients diagnosed as COVID-19 to their hospitals to relieve Italian health institutions, have the effect that Russia, Cuba, and Albania have on Italian public opinion? While Italian public opinion has adopted right-wing populist parties that have been skeptical of the EU in recent years, Europe's cold treatment of Italy and its failure to show solidarity when necessary have important implications. But European countries believe that the weakening of the economy of Italy or any Mediterranean country, due to their interdependence, will be felt throughout Europe. French President Emmanuel Macron stated in an interview with the Italian press that “if Europe is going to die, the reason for its death will be its failure to act.” Italy's Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte also stressed that he did not want to see a Europe that meets in a minimum commonality, but rather that the Europe of the future should be in solidarity and sovereignty.

Countries like Germany, on the other hand, do not want to buy the debts of the weak countries and pay the price for their failed fiscal policies. It cannot be said that Germany acts as a completely selfish country on this issue. Italy has a public debt of 2 trillion 443 billion euros and its ability to act alone in these difficult conditions is severely limited. The expropriations that we will see frequently after this crisis pose another danger. Among the companies to be nationalized, the airline Alitalia, which has barely been able to operate any flights in this crisis, is in the first place. But the national airline, which has been in financial trouble for years, was also buoyed up before the crisis, despite numerous bailouts that pushed the EU's state aid limits. While the nationalization or state partnership is certainly an important tool to mitigate the economic effects of the crisis, the country's limited resources will also be wasted if public support is given to the wrong firms.

No one is questioning the existence of the EU, which has had severely deep disagreements before. Free movement within the EU is an indispensable element, although it cannot be exploited at the moment. The euro, introduced in 1999, is also important for ensuring financial stability required in such times of crisis, although it limits countries -- such as Italy -- accustomed to more flexible currency policies. Giving up the euro will, therefore, continue to be an empty promise of populist movements, with its cost still high. Countries outside the Eurozone will not give up their currency easily, either. However, the EU's inability to make decisions will make its global power increasingly insignificant, despite its economic size. The regional powers will try to fill the void left by it.

In addition to the disagreements in international relations, mistrust among societies is a matter that has to be taken seriously. The first unusual cases of pneumonia were seen in Italy when news of the outbreak first emerged in December from China, which is unreliable now. On Jan. 7, hospitals in Milan reported 50 to 80% more cases of pneumonia than the annual average. In those weeks it was clear that the virus was circulating freely; national and international institutions could take precautions. However, according to the information provided by the World Health Organization (WHO), Italy's Ministry of Health did not recommend any restrictions on international travel, especially in tourism and trade relations with China. In other words, Italy, like other European countries, has had a hard time taking measures that are costly at the expense of the health of its citizens. On the other hand, China, whose published cases and death toll have been dubious, has sent generous aid to influence the international public opinion, while limiting the mobility of the WHO and preventing global measures from being taken.

Next Easter, the church of the same name in the heart of Venice, which preserves the relics of Saint Rocco, is going to be opened, but no one will attend the service. Nor will the tourists, who gaze -- bewildered and in admiration -- at the frescoes of the famous Tintoretto in the church. St. Rocco, however, visited the towns and cities in Rome, Piacenza, and central Italy, during the most difficult times, and showed loyalty and courage to help the infected, and cured the plague. Italians now hope that by the night of Aug. 15, when St. Rocco is commemorated, the epidemic will be completely over, the health sector, the economy, and the international political relations will find solutions to the problems caused by the pandemic and the people will have confidence in each other again.

* Opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu Agency.

* Translated by Merve Dastan in Ankara