ANALYSIS - The Philippines’ enigmatic President Duterte

- The author is a long-term resident of Japan and a renowned specialist in Asia-Pacific politics, affairs and intelligence

By Todd Crowell

TOKYO (AA) – President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines was an enigma before he arrived in Japan last week on an official state visit. He was still an enigma to many people after he left.

Duterte has upended the strategic apple cart of East Asia with his fiery rhetoric and direct threats to sever all military ties with the United States, which has been the Philippines’ main protector since 1951.

He doubled down on that proposition during the Japan visit. Speaking to a group of businessmen, Duterte said, “I want, maybe in the next two years, my country free of the presence of foreign military troops. I want them out!”

White House spokesman Josh Ernest said, “the United States has not received notification from the government of the Philippines expressing a desire to make specific changes in our relationship. It is all rhetoric at this point.”

At the same time, Duterte assured Japanese businessmen that his country’s new engagement with China would be limited mainly to economics. “I want to be friends with China but I don’t need [their] arms,” he said.

If that is the case, his diplomacy has been working brilliantly.

During his visit to Beijing, he came back with promises of investment and soft loans amounting to $24 billion. By contrast Japan’s premier Shinzo Abe offered about $45 million in aid.

So who is the real Rodrigo Duterte? Is he the tough-minded strategist using leverage to exact more foreign investment? Or is he a U.S.-hating troublemaker who fundamentally does not understand the reality of diplomacy?

“It will take a little more time to solidify our evaluation of Duterte,” said a senior Japanese government official in the Yomiuri Shimbun.

During their meeting, Abe reportedly urged Duterte to place importance on the Philippine relation with the U.S.

Abe apparently was gratified when Duterte said that the successful arbitration verdict delivered earlier this year, the one filed initially by his predecessor over disputes in the South China Sea, was legally binding despite reports that he wants to put it on the shelf in the interests of currying favor in Beijing.

Following the summit meeting, the two sides issued the blandest possible communique, saying only that they agreed on the need to respect the rule of law and freedom of navigation on the high seas.

The Philippines has been the avenue for Japan into the South China Sea controversies, which Tokyo thinks touch on their strategic interests even though it takes no position on the ownership of the many disputed islands.

During the current Abe government, the two countries have strengthened military ties.

Japan is loaning the country patrol aircraft and building coast guard vessels to protect its ocean borders. Duterte inspected one during his visit and watched a coast guard exercise.

Duterte’s predecessor, Benigno Aquino III, had welcomed the presence of U.S. troops in his country and signed The Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement that provided basing rights to American military.

For years the U.S. operated two large permanent bases, Clark air force base and the Olongapo navel facility. The Philippine Congress expelled the bases after the “People Power” revolution of 1986.

However, Washington and Manila later signed the Visiting Forces Agreement, which allowed the U.S. to station around a hundred troops in the southern region of Mindanao to help fight militants.

The U.S. and the Philippines have a long love-hate relationship.

The U.S. took the islands from Spain in 1897 and granted independence in 1946. America brutally suppressed an early independence insurgency round the turn of the last century.

The bloody conflict is barely remembered in the U.S., but is still vivid to many Filipinos, especially nationalists like Duterte.

At the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit meeting in Laos last month, he circulated a graphic photo of a 1906 massacre of indigenous Muslim Moro to the heads of state at the conference.

Duterte says he wants to pursue a foreign policy that is independent of the U.S., Japan or any other country with a possible tilt towards China. That is not necessarily unique for either Tokyo or Washington.

It should be noted that Japan currently is pursuing a policy toward Russia that is markedly more conciliatory than Russo-American relations at this time.

Next month, Abe will host President Vladimir Putin, amid speculation that a deal over disputed islands north of Hokkaido may be in the offing.

- Opinions expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy.