Assassination of deputy Hamas leader leaves war at crossroads: Experts

By Qais Abu Samra

RAMALLAH, Palestine (AA) - Palestinian political experts believe the assassination of Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri in Beirut, leaves the conflict with Israel at a crossroads.

Experts unanimously agreed that the aftermath of the operation may push Israel to one of two possibilities.

The first being is Israel committing new massacres, ecstatic over the victory it achieved with the assassination of Arouri.

The second, is Israel settling for an agreement with Hamas that is viewed as a victory by Israelis.

Experts said the assassination may also ignite the West Bank and escalate resistance operations in that territory.

Arouri was killed Tuesday in an Israeli drone strike on a Hamas office building in Beirut.

He was the highest-ranking Hamas leader to have been killed by Israel since the outbreak of the conflict in the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7.

“Israel assassinated Saleh Al-Arouri,” said Israeli Army Radio, citing unnamed sources.

- Repercussions of Arouri’s assassination

“This assassination will have three repercussions,” said Ayman Youssef, professor of political science at the Arab American University in Jenin.

“The first is halting any negotiating path and cease-fire between the Palestinian resistance and Israel, creating more crises, and postponing cease-fire initiatives, by virtue of Israel transferring the battle to a new space,” said Youssef.

The second is “the escalation of the Israeli aggression and war of extermination in the Gaza Strip, where Israel may exploit the assassination as a victory, given that Arouri is the second-in-command in the Hamas movement, and translate that into more massacres,” he said.

As for the third, “It may be reflected in the West Bank because Arouri is a native of the West Bank and has popularity among the bases of the movement and other factions, and therefore there may be military reactions launched from the West Bank against Israeli targets.”

On the Lebanese front, Youssef said: “Hezbollah is rational, and most likely will not go into a wide and comprehensive battle with Israel, but it may plan more specific operations and target unconventional sites and fronts in a limited manner.

“The process leads to a new phase of the crisis and may include all arenas. All options are available,” said Youssef.

- Crossroad

The assassination places the conflict at a crossroads, the first of which is the expansion and extension of the conflict to include all arenas, said the Director of the Yabous Center for Studies, Suleiman Bisharat.

As for the second, he said: “This assassination will be the motive for Israel to pay for political prices for Hezbollah and the resistance in Gaza.”

Bisharat said, "After Israel failed to achieve any goals in the Gaza Strip, it chose this option as a last resort to reach a settlement."

He believes that the assassination “may work to strengthen the spirit of resistance in the West Bank, and push the national situation there to carry out armed operations, not only by Hamas but also by other Palestinian groups and organizations."

- Reaching a settlement

The assassination of the deputy Hamas leader would create many repercussions, but it might push Israel to agree to a political agreement with the Palestinian resistance factions, according to Palestinian expert Ahmad Rafiq Awad.

“Israel views the assassination operation as a victory,” said Awad, noting that “it considers that it has achieved one of its most important goals by killing Arouri.”

“Now, Israel will ask the mediators and its allies to come up with a scenario in order to end the war,” he said.

“Since the start of the war, Israel has suffered great losses, and its image has been destroyed both nationally and internationally, today however, it has restored some of this poor image by targeting a Hamas senior leader," said Awad.

“For the Palestinians, the operation is a push back to square one in this war,” Awad added, noting that in this case “Israel may commit more crimes.”

The Israeli army placed Arouri under administrative detention for limited periods between 1990 and 1992, against the backdrop of his activity in the Hamas movement.

*Writing by Ikram Kouachi