Battleground states in US, key demographics shape final stretch of Harris-Trump showdown

By Merve Berker

With just days until the polls close in the US, both Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are doubling down on strategies to secure victory in a race that has been defined by stark demographic divides and fierce competition in swing states, according to media reports.

As Election Day nears, the race between Harris and Trump is locked in a virtual tie, particularly in the seven battleground states likely to determine the next occupant of the White House, NBC News reported on Saturday.

US Election Day -- including both presidential and congressional elections -- is set for Tuesday, Nov. 5.

Both campaigns are banking on targeted outreach to critical voter groups to tip the scales in their favor, highlighting the unique dynamics and challenges each candidate faces.

- Harris’ strategies to mobilize key voters

A central concern for Harris’ campaign is to maintain strong support among Black and Latino voters, groups that have historically leaned Democratic but have shown signs of wavering in recent polls.

In 2020, Joe Biden carried 92% of Black voters and 59% of Latinos.

Harris must ensure these numbers hold steady, especially as some surveys indicate growing interest in Trump among minority groups.

The vice president’s team hopes that turning out her share of Black, Latino, and Asian American voters will be critical to counterbalancing Trump’s gains in other areas.

At the same time, Harris is banking on a widening gender gap that favors her, as women, particularly those motivated by abortion rights, gravitate towards the Democratic platform.

Since Trump’s 2016 appointment of conservative justices ultimately led to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a historic ruling by the US Supreme Court that established a general constitutional right to abortion, Harris has made reproductive rights a cornerstone of her appeal to female voters.

In a bid to engage younger women, she recently appeared on the "Call Her Daddy" podcast, a popular platform among young women who are typically less politically engaged.

Harris’ efforts in suburban areas are also pivotal.

She is targeting suburban moderates, independents, and disillusioned Republicans who are wary of Trump’s divisive rhetoric.

Former Republican figures such as Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger have openly endorsed Harris, hoping to sway center-right voters.

Meanwhile, Trump’s focus has shifted toward rural and less-educated areas, where his support has traditionally been strong.

- Trump’s focus on alternative outreach, young male voters

Trump, however, has tailored his outreach to appeal to young male voters who are increasingly disenchanted with traditional politics.

He has leveraged alternative media platforms, such as Joe Rogan’s podcast, to reach a demographic that tends to consume content outside of mainstream channels.

Young male voters, who in past elections leaned modestly toward Democratic candidates, may now be a swing group that could provide Trump with a critical edge.

Meanwhile, the Trump campaign has outsourced much of its ground game efforts to allies like Turning Point Action and the America PAC, linked to billionaire Elon Musk.

However, this move has raised concerns among some Republican Party (GOP) strategists, who worry about the lack of a precise, on-the-ground strategy.

Door-to-door voter outreach, a hallmark of traditional campaigning, has been inconsistent in Trump’s field operations, which could impact his turnout in closely contested states.

- ‘Blue Wall’ states: Test of strength for both candidates

The electoral map reveals that the Midwest states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin -- once considered reliably Democratic -- are again crucial battlegrounds.

Known as the "blue wall," these states fell to Trump in 2016, only to return to Biden’s column in 2020.

Harris and Trump have each spent significant time campaigning in these areas, understanding that any of these states could potentially decide the election.

Harris is focused on bolstering support among white college-educated voters in these regions, who backed Biden by a significant margin in 2020.

Trump, aiming to recreate his 2016 success, is wrapping up his campaign with rallies across the Midwest, emphasizing his economic platform and hardline stance on immigration.

His rallies in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and other swing states signal his intention to reclaim lost ground in the industrial Midwest.

While Trump has been making inroads among Latino and Black voters, his campaign’s messaging has sometimes sparked backlash.

Recent events, including a rally where comedian Tony Hinchcliffe made racially insensitive comments, risk alienating voters of color.

Despite these challenges, Trump’s team remains hopeful that discontent with the Democratic Party among minority groups could translate into support for his campaign, particularly in states with significant Latino populations like Arizona and Nevada.

- Ground game: Final push

As both campaigns enter the final stretch, their respective ground games could prove decisive.

Harris’ campaign has invested heavily in grassroots efforts, with teams dedicated to door-knocking, voter mobilization, and ensuring high turnout.

Trump, by contrast, has placed a stronger emphasis on media outreach and rally-style events, relying on figures like Elon Musk to amplify his message rather than building a traditional field infrastructure.

GOP strategists worry that this gamble may backfire in states where close margins are likely.

In what appears to be a razor-thin race, both candidates are betting that their unique approaches will resonate with key demographics and deliver a victory.

With polls showing a tight race in several key battleground states, the outcome of the presidential election may hinge on voter turnout and any last-minute shifts in support.

As Election Day unfolds, all eyes will be on the critical swing states and the diverse coalitions that each candidate hopes will carry them to victory.

The 2024 election promises a close and intense finish, with each vote holding significant weight in determining the nation’s future leadership.

Battleground states are pivotal because the US does not directly elect its presidents. Instead, the process plays out via the Electoral College where 538 representatives cast their ballots in line with their states’ outcomes.

A candidate needs to secure 270 Electoral College votes to claim victory. Electors are allocated to states based on their population, and most states give all of their electors to whichever candidate wins the state in the general vote.