Blinken visiting Türkiye, with Gaza war, Sweden's NATO bid, sale of F-16s topping agenda

By Iclal Turan

WASHINGTON (AA) - US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Istanbul on Saturday, where he arrived last night on the first leg of his fourth Middle East tour since Oct. 7, in addition to two stops in Europe.

During the tour, which also includes Türkiye, Greece, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the West Bank, and Egypt, Blinken will be meeting his counterparts to discuss a "number of critical issues," according to his spokesman Matthew Miller.

On Saturday, Blinken will meet with both Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

"The Secretary also looks forward to discussing with his Turkish counterparts our many areas of bilateral and regional cooperation, including the final steps to complete Türkiye’s ratification of Sweden’s accession to NATO," Miller told reporters on Wednesday.

"Türkiye is a longstanding and valued NATO Ally and partner and has a crucial role to play in addressing regional security issues, including preventing the spread of the conflict in Gaza," Miller wrote on X, shortly after Blinken's arrival in Istanbul.

Blinken returns to the region amid growing concerns over regional escalation in the wake of Israel's assassination this week of Hamas deputy leader Saleh al-Arouri in Lebanon and attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea by Iranian-backed Houthis.

Since Hamas' cross-border attack on Oct. 7, Israel has continued to pound the Gaza Strip, with at least 22,600 Palestinians killed and 57,910 injured, according to Gaza health authorities. Nearly 1,200 Israelis are believed to have been killed in the Hamas attack, while more than 130 hostages still remain in Gaza.

The situation in Gaza, along with Sweden's NATO accession and the sale of F-16 fighter jets for Türkiye, will dominate Blinken's agenda in Istanbul, according to Rich Outzen, retired US colonel and a nonresident senior fellow at the Washington-based Atlantic Council.

Outzen said what many see as a "blank check support" for Israel is sowing public anger in Türkiye while at the state level the issue is "more nuanced," as both sides think that the "fighting should end as soon as possible" while supporting a two-state solution.

Türkiye has been pressing the US for an immediate and permanent cease-fire in Gaza while the US insists on backing Israel's right to defend itself.

Fidan and Blinken have held several phone calls and meetings since Oct. 7 to discuss Gaza among other bilateral issues, including Sweden's NATO accession and the US sale to Türkiye of F-16 fighter jets.

- Sweden's NATO bid and F-16 fighter jet sale

In October 2021, Türkiye submitted a letter of request to purchase 40 F-16 Block 70 fighter jets and 79 modernization kits from the US. It was only in January 2023 that the Biden administration informally notified the Congress of the sale, and a tiered review process was initiated to start negotiations with Congress.

Key lawmakers in Congress tied the F-16 sale to Türkiye with Sweden and Finland's NATO bids after the two Nordic countries, both close to or bordering Russia, applied for NATO membership soon after Russia’s war in Ukraine began in February 2022.

Türkiye approved Finland's membership in the alliance in March but said it was waiting for Sweden to abide by a June 2022 trilateral memorandum to address Ankara's security concerns. Legislation greenlighting Sweden's NATO accession was approved last week by the Turkish parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, leaving only a vote in the general assembly to grant or deny Türkiye’s full approval.

While parliament is on recess until Jan. 16, expectations are high in Türkiye for a near-simultaneous approval of Sweden's NATO bid and the sale of F-16s to Ankara.

After a phone call last month, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his US counterpart that he will have US Congress approval for F-16 sales after the Turkish parliament ratifies Sweden's NATO bid.

Asked by Anadolu when the State Department plans to formally notify Congress on the sale of F-16s, Miller did not specify a time.

"We have had obstacles in Congress because of the actions that Turkey has taken that we have had to navigate and work through. We have been trying to work through those as diligently as possible," he said.

"But I will say that I think the best thing that could happen to lead the progress ... on this issue would be for Turkey to take action as soon as possible to ratify Sweden’s accession," he added.

According to Outzen, both sides are dealing with the fallout of a "low-trust relationship."

"Washington and Ankara policy elites have very little trust in one another for various reasons," he explained.

Outzen said he thinks there is a 50% chance of "simultaneous action" but also an equal chance of a "bad scenario" of the State Department moving forward with the sale of F-35 jets to Greece while holding back on F-16 sales to Türkiye.

- Mistrust in relations

Relations between Ankara and Washington have been strained in recent years due to a number of issues, including US support for the terrorist YPG/PKK in Syria, disagreements over Türkiye’s purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system, and Washington's sanctions on Ankara.

In 2019, the US under then-President Donald Trump removed Türkiye from the F-35 joint strike fighter program over Ankara's purchase of Russia's advanced S-400 anti-air system. Türkiye only bought the Russian system after its long efforts to acquire US Patriot missiles were unsuccessful.

Many analysts acknowledge that the recent developments led to a deep mistrust in relations between the two NATO allies, which makes it difficult for them to move forward with NATO's Sweden bid and the F-16 sale.

"I think what we saw during the Cold War is that trust takes a long time to develop," Outzen said. "It takes a long time to be built through many conscious decisions on the parts of decision-makers in both countries, but it can be destroyed very quickly."

Outzen pointed to a lack of high-level people in both countries who are working to take decisions to "rebuild trust."

"A journey of 1,000 miles starts with a single step," he said. "So you have to start somewhere right, and that's that was the whole idea of the F-16s."

"This may be another disappointment, or it may be the start of the journey to recovery of mutual trust," he added.

On the best-case scenario between the two countries, Outzen said it would be that the US starts listening to some of Türkiye's "legitimate security concerns" along its border areas, which he said, leads to a "diminution of US support" to the YPG, the terrorist PKK affiliate in northern Syria, near Türkiye’s southern border.

In its more than 35-year terror campaign against Türkiye, the PKK – listed as a terrorist organization by Türkiye, the US, and EU – has been responsible for the deaths of more than 40,000 people, including women, children, and infants. The YPG is PKK’s Syrian offshoot.

Türkiye has long criticized US support for the terrorist PKK/YPG. While Washington claims it fights Daesh/ISIS terrorists with the help of its PKK/YPG allies, Ankara says using one terror group to fight another makes no sense.