China-India border pact: Why now and what next?

By Riyaz ul Khaliq

ISTANBUL (AA) – Hours before the BRICS summit kicked off in Russia, two of the bloc’s biggest members – China and India – announced a major breakthrough in one of their festering bilateral issues.

The Indian Foreign Ministry said the two sides agreed to a pact on military patrols along their disputed border in the Himalayas, and Beijing hailed it as a “positive” development, potentially paving the way for a burying of the hatchet in a conflict that broke out in 2020.

The announcement came as both Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi headed to the Russian city of Kazan, where the BRICS gathering kicked off on Tuesday.

It has sparked speculation of a potential meeting between the two leaders, and even strengthened prospects of a trilateral summit with host President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines in Kazan.

Since May 2020, the two Asian giants had been engaged in a tussle along the 3,500-kilometer (2,174-mile) Line of Actual Control – their de facto border in the Ladakh area of the disputed Jammu and Kashmir region.

In July that year, at least 24 soldiers, 20 from India and four Chinese, were killed in clashes. That led to a tense and long-running standoff that has seen both sides deploy thousands of military personnel and heavy weapons in the region.

- ‘China is not in the same belligerent phase’

Over the past four years, there have been several rounds of high-level military talks, as well as diplomatic pushes, to resolve the issue, so the sudden announcement has raised questions over the timing.

Praveen Donthi, senior India analyst at the International Crisis Group, pointed out that this seems to be a culmination of a process, with a particular “uptick” in diplomatic engagement since the appointment of Xu Feihong as Chinese ambassador to India last year.

“Due to its domestic economic challenges, China is not in the same belligerent phase, and New Delhi recognizes that,” Donthi told Anadolu, adding that there had been “speculation” of a thaw for some time now.

So, he said, this LAC patrol pact is “not coming out of the blue or against the grain.”

“India and China have used multilateral summits to take the initial steps and start diplomatic engagement at the highest level,” he said.

The neighbors had similar issues in the not-so-distant past, he said, pointing to the Doklam crisis of 2017, when their militaries had a standoff over China constructing a road in Doklam, an area near the trijunction border with Bhutan.

“Both sides de-escalated and withdrew troops in time for the BRICS summit that year,” said Donthi.

He said the process towards de-escalation in 2018 kickstarted after Modi and Xi met on the sidelines of the G20 Summit in Hamburg a year earlier.

“It’s possible that this BRICS summit could be such a beginning. The China-India boundary issue is quite complex and needs dedicated and sustained engagement. This is one baby step towards that,” said Donthi.

- View from China

Beijing-based analyst Einar Tangen believes the breakthrough is New Delhi’s way of “reminding Washington that India is not the Philippines, and Modi is not Bong Bong.”

Bong Bong is the popular nickname of Philippines President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who has been in power since late June 2022.

China has maritime disputes with the Philippines that have strained their bilateral ties, and Beijing sees the US and its allies backing Manila.

The LAC pact, according to Einar, can lead to “disengagement and resolution of tensions,” and the two militaries will work out logistical details.

The analyst reiterated that Washington is “not happy” with India, citing the ouster of Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Modi’s reduced mandate in India’s recent general elections, and the Indian premier’s hug with Putin in Moscow as indicators and reasons of US displeasure.

He said India has become the second-largest supplier of what Washington terms “sensitive” exports, including microchips and circuits, which boomed to over $60 million in both April and May, approximately doubling year-on-year, triggering “concerns” in the US.

Einar said the “strength” of BRICS was one of the reasons for the thaw between New Delhi and Beijing at a time when “Washington’s credibility had waned due its support to Israel.”

In the coming period, he said New Delhi should be “expected to follow an independent line that mixes relationships with other countries based on its needs.”

Modi “shows he can play the major powers against each other,” he added.

Donthi, the Crisis Group expert, concurred with Einar’s assessment of New Delhi’s autonomous posturing.

Modi did not attend a gathering of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Kazakhstan in July, he said, but India’s “diplomatic posturing has changed” over the past few months.

That was evident with the decision of Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar to participate in another SCO summit last week, even though it was hosted by archrival Pakistan, said Donthi.

“This indicates that New Delhi is keen on mending relations with Beijing,” he said.

“Both nations have been at loggerheads since 2020, with forward deployments in the Himalayas for four winters, which has imposed heavy costs. It was high time they set up some guardrails.”