Coalition conundrum: South Africa’s ANC faces dilemma after historic election loss

By Hassan Isilow

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) has begun negotiating for alliances with other political parties to form a coalition government.

The ANC once led by the late global icon Nelson Mandela dominated South African politics for the past three decades until losing its majority in national and provincial elections last Wednesday.

The party -- which used to secure more than 60% in all elections since 1994, except in 2019, when its share dipped to 57.5% -- got only 40.18% of the vote. This has put it in a difficult position to form a government on its own.

Experts say several issues contributed to the ANC’s decline, such as the unemployment rate, which stands at just under 33% -- the highest in the world.

The country's energy crisis, which forced the government to implement measures such as electricity rationing, also known as load shedding, enraged many voters, and the opposition capitalized on it by making it a major issue in election campaigns.

Jan Hofmeyr, head of the policy and analysis program at the Cape Town-based Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, told Anadolu that infighting and factionalism within the ANC also weakened the party.

Political parties such as the left-wing Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) founded over a decade ago, as well as the formation of the uMkhonto weSizwe, or MK Party, led by ex-President Jacob Zuma six months ago, also influenced the former liberation movement's voter base.

The first session of parliament, the National Assembly, will be held no later than two weeks after the election results are announced, and lawmakers will elect the president.

The ANC currently has 159 lawmakers in the 400-member National Assembly, while the center-right main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA) has 87, MK Party has 58, and EFF has 39, the right-wing Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) has 17 seats, and the remaining 14 parties in parliament have between nine and one seats each.

- Calls for unity

Earlier this week, ANC leader and the country’s President Cyril Ramaphosa urged political parties that won seats in the recently concluded election to find common ground, overcome their differences, and collaborate for the good of everyone and the country.

In his address to the nation, after electoral authorities announced the results on Sunday, Ramaphosa said: "Our people expect all parties to work together within the framework of our Constitution and address whatever challenges we encounter peacefully and in accordance with the prescripts of our Constitution and the rule of law."

Hofmeyr told Anadolu that the ANC has several options for forming a coalition government, as this is the first time it is doing so.

He said the ANC is unlikely to form a coalition with former President Jacob Zuma's MK party, which has indicated that it will not negotiate with the party while Ramaphosa is still president. "The ANC will also take into consideration that almost 14.5% of the votes MK got are from three provinces out of the nine, which means it’s not a party represented across the country,” he said, ruling out a partnership in government between the ANC and MK party.

While the EFF has indicated a willingness to negotiate with the ANC, Hofmeyr believed that Ramaphosa's party will look at many factors, including the EFF's leadership and its reliability as a coalition partner, given its previous confrontational approach to the ruling party in parliament, where it played a spoiler role.
"The ANC will think twice before going into an alliance with the EFF,” he said.

- ANC-DA alliance

Hofmeyr suggested that the ANC could form a coalition with the opposition DA, which has been fiercely opposed to the ruling party for the past two decades.
Although it is difficult for the two parties to sell such a coalition agreement to their supporters, he believed that their economic policies are more similar, at least on paper.

"From a global perspective, this is the preferred coalition among international investors, markets, and fund managers. It would be perceived as a more stable coalition," he added.

Political analyst Ebrahim Fakir agreed with Hofmeyr, saying, "If the ANC goes with the DA in a coalition, it will have a significant impact on the ability to stabilize public institutions."

Fakir noted that the alliance would have both advantages and disadvantages, but it would be a viable option for short-term stability.

He did, however, warn that any type of coalition is fraught with danger.

"If the ANC goes with the DA, suspicions and animosities run so deep that you might have one partner wishing to be obstructionist to the other, so there are all kinds of advantages and disadvantages,” he told Anadolu.

He also wondered whether the ANC would ally with either the EFF or MK, who broke away from it, and what interest would they have.

Fakir, however, said the most preferred option would be a government of national unity in which all parties are represented, even though it comes at a cost to all parties as well as benefits, but how portfolios are distributed will be important.

When asked whether it is good for the nation that no party won an outright majority, he said, "It's a win for voters, as political parties can no longer take voter support for granted and must work for it."

Hofmeyr said the ANC has the option of forming a minority government, in which it will attempt to govern as a minority by reaching a consensus on key issues.

"This is a very much new situation in South Africa. It is unclear whether it will work or not. Initially, it may cause some volatility and uncertainty in government," he said.

He, however, believes what is currently needed is a stable government to ensure that endorsement and confidence are intact in the South African economy.

When asked if a coalition government would succeed without disagreements and breakaways as seen during coalitions at the local government level in the previous six administrations, Hofmeyr said, "The nature of South African politics has been very confrontational. It's unclear how it will play out at the national level.”