Commodity markets experience selling pressure ahead of US elections

By Burhan Sansarlioglu

ISTANBUL (AA) – Commodity markets faced selling pressure last week due to uncertainties surrounding the upcoming US presidential elections, concerns about the Chinese economy, and increased agricultural production in Brazil.

As central banks worldwide near the end of their fight against inflation, expectations for interest rate cuts become clearer with each passing day.

Uncertainties over the outcome of the US elections affected commodity prices, despite expectations that the Fed would implement three rate cuts this year.

- Gold hits record high before falling

The price of gold briefly hit a record high, rising above $2,483, as expectations grew that the Fed would start cutting rates in September. However, it later declined to $2,400.

The demand for the US dollar negatively impacted precious metal prices.

Analysts noted that green energy investments in the US might be disrupted if Trump is re-elected. Silver and copper prices fluctuated due to concerns about demand related to their utility in green energy projects.

Last week, gold lost 0.4%, silver fell 5.1%, platinum dropped 3.9%, and palladium decreased 6.5%.

- Chinese economic data pressures base metal prices

China’s GDP grew by 4.7% year-on-year, below expectations, while the country’s retail sales increased by just 2%, the slowest rise since December 2022.

Analysts suggest that the Chinese government may need to take further steps to stimulate the economy.

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has yet to implement the expected economic reforms outlined in the Third Plenary Session, leading to selling pressure on base metals.

As a result, the price of copper fell 8.1%, lead dropped 3.8%, nickel decreased 3.5%, and aluminum slid 14.9% last week.

- Agricultural commodities see sharp declines

Rice prices fell following news that India will lift restrictions on rice exports, easing supply concerns.

Corn prices also declined due to demand concerns amid falling oil prices.

In light of these changes, the bushel price of wheat traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell 1.1%, corn dropped 2.2%, soybeans fell 2.8%, and rice decreased 2.7% last week.

Coffee prices fell as production concerns eased with increased rainfall in Brazil, while cotton and sugar prices also declined.

Cocoa prices dropped significantly amid reduced supply concerns due to improved weather conditions in West Africa.

The pound price of cotton traded on the Intercontinental Exchange fell 0.7%, sugar dropped 2.8%, and coffee decreased 4.2%, while the ton price of cocoa ended the week down by 7%.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim