Continuity or change? Ghana readies for polls under dark economic shadow

By Enoch Fiifi Forson

ACCRA, Ghana (AA) – Millions in Ghana will head to the polls on Saturday at a time of severe economic hardship in the West African nation known for its vast gold reserves and cocoa production.

The presidential and legislative elections could mark a complete handover of power, as voters weigh a choice between continuity or change.

President Nana Akufo-Addo is out of the race and his ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) is lagging behind the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).

NPP’s Mahamudu Bawumia, the current vice president of Ghana, is up against NDC leader and former President John Dramani Mahama in the presidential battle.

However, with 13 candidates on the ballot – including prominent figures like former minister Alan Kyerematen and well-known businessman Nana Kwame Bediako – the election also holds the potential to disrupt Ghana’s traditional two-party dominance.

Around 18.7 million registered voters will elect a new president and 276 members of Parliament, with polls opening at 7 a.m. (0700GMT) and closing at 5 p.m. (1700GMT). Results of the legislative elections are due on Monday morning, followed by the presidential results the next day.

- Economic crunch shaping voter sentiment

At the heart of the 2024 election is Ghana’s worst economic crisis in decades.

Public debt skyrocketed from 63% of GDP in 2019 to 92.7% in 2022, while inflation has exceeded 54%, burdening citizens with rising costs.

The Ghanaian cedi has depreciated by 300% against the US dollar since 2016, eroding savings and inflating the cost of imports. Businesses are also struggling under government policies, including loan restructuring and heavy taxation.

Although the government secured a $3 billion International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout in 2023, progress on stabilizing the economy has been slow.

New measures, such as the Electronic Levy (E-Levy) and a betting tax, have compounded public frustrations, while illegal small-scale mining, locally called “galamsey,” continues to devastate Ghana’s water bodies.

The economy dominates voter concerns, with unemployment, religious representation, and the fight against galamsey also featuring prominently.

Bawumia’s quest to become Ghana’s first Muslim president in a predominantly Christian country adds a unique dynamic to the race.

- Candidates and campaigns

Bawumia, the ruling party’s flagbearer and a key architect of the NPP victories in 2016 and 2020, is emphasizing digitalization over fiscal management in his campaign.

He has touted achievements like the Ghana Card and mobile money interoperability as modernization milestones.

However, the current crisis has tarnished his reputation as an economic wizard, with Bawumia recently saying: “I am the conductor, not the driver, of the current situation.”

Despite criticism, his supporters believe his digitalization agenda could transform Ghana’s economy.

Mahama, Ghana’s president from 2012 to 2017, is aiming for a comeback, branding himself as a “retired general called back to fight” for his country.

He has framed his campaign around resetting Ghana’s finances and governance, focusing on tackling corruption, rebooting the economy, and prioritizing infrastructure development.

Mahama’s previous term was also marred by economic challenges that contributed to his landslide defeat in 2016, but he is presenting his experience as an asset and his message of change has resonated with many disillusioned by the NPP’s governance.

Kyerematen, a former NPP stalwart now leading the Movement for Change, is advocating for a break from the NPP-NDC duopoly in Ghana’s politics.

After alleging unfair treatment during the NPP primaries, Kyerematen has gained traction among voters seeking a third option.

Similarly, Bediako, a real estate mogul, has positioned himself as an outsider, promising a new type of leadership and economic transformation that has appealed particularly to younger voters.

- Projections and concerns

Just days from the actual vote, pre-election polls reveal a mixed picture at best.

Local research firm Global InfoAnalytics predicts a first-round victory for Mahama, projecting him to win 52.2% of the vote, compared to Bawumia’s 41.4%.

However, Ghanaian analysts like Smart Sarpong foresee a runoff, projecting Bawumia at 49.1% and Mahama at 45.8%.

The Economist Intelligence Unit also predicts a Mahama win but acknowledges the race could be close.

As for the conduct of the polls, Ghana’s Electoral Commission is facing opposition criticism for alleged bias and attempts to restrict media access to collation centers.

Following public backlash, the commission rescinded the media restrictions, but concerns persist.

Serebuor Quaicoe, head of training at the commission, dismissed the allegations: “There is no way an election in Ghana can be rigged; it is only possible with the collaboration of all stakeholders.”

The commission’s decision to include Akua Donkor – a presidential candidate who died in October – on the ballot has also sparked debate, and now votes cast in her favor will be considered invalid.