Does Israel’s alleged attack against Iran signal end to direct confrontation?

By Abderlraouf Arnaout

JERUSALEM (AA) - Israel refrained from officially commenting on an attack attributed to Tel Aviv in Iran early Friday, despite US media citing Israeli and US officials confirming that it responded to an unprecedented Iranian attack last weekend.

Israeli analysts and former officials saw the attack as a message to Tehran indicating Tel Aviv's capability to strike Iran inside its territory.

They did not rule out the possibility that the limited response was an attempt to contain the incident while the Israeli government prioritizes keeping the war in the Gaza Strip and returning Israeli hostages from the enclave.

If the Israeli attack is indeed true, it comes days before the start of the Jewish Passover holiday, which begins Monday and lasts one week.

On April 13, Iran launched 350 missiles and drones that reached Israel early Sunday, in the first attack Tehran launched from its territory on Tel Aviv, in response to a missile strike targeting its consulate section in Syria on April 1.

Tel Aviv indicated its intention to respond to the Iranian airstrikes, escalating tensions in the region.

-No new round

Military analyst Ron Ben-Yishai on the Ynet website said: “This (Israeli alleged attack on Iran) could be an indication that all parties involved would like to see that matter closed and tensions reduced.”

Former Israeli National Security Adviser Eyal Hulata said, “It is certain that something happened in the past few hours.”

“Iran does not want to admit, either nothing big happened or it wants to minimize it because it does not want a response and fears being blamed,” he told Israeli Army Radio. “It is important for Iran to understand that when it acts against us, we have the ability to strike any point and can cause serious damage, we have air power capabilities and the United States stands by us.”

Military correspondent for the Wallah news website, Amir Bohbot, said, “According to foreign reports, Israel attacked a military base in Isfahan. This is a dramatic event. If we were not in a situation where Israel is fighting on several fronts, I think the behavior towards Iran would be different.”

He told the 103FM radio station that “the government has decided that its top priority is in the Gaza Strip, and there are 133 reasons for it to be the main arena. The operation tonight tried to restore the direct confrontation that the Iranians sought to push into the shadows.”

-Iran's options

Meanwhile, Avi Mayer, former editor-in-chief of the Jerusalem Post newspaper, wrote on X: “The Israeli response appears to have been limited to a handful of military targets deep inside Iran.”

He said: “Israel's message is clear: We are responding in a measured way, but make no mistake – we can hit you, we can hit you hard, and we can hit you anywhere. Don't test us again.”

Mayer saw that “the Iranian regime has several options. It can huff and puff but let the (reported) Israeli response go unanswered militarily, recognizing that it was a targeted and measured response to Iran's unprecedented act of aggression toward Israel on Saturday. This would result in de-escalation and would be both the wise choice and the best one for the region.”

“Alternatively, it can send a second—perhaps even larger—wave of drones and missiles toward Israel, inviting an Israeli response qualitatively similar to what reportedly took place today. One wrong or poorly calibrated move and such a tit-for-tat exchange could easily devolve into a broader confrontation,” said Mayer. “Finally, it can mobilize its military, fully activate its proxy armies—chief among them Hezbollah, with its arsenal of 150,000 missiles—and mount a full assault on the Jewish state, which would result in all-out war, perhaps including other actors.

Mayer considered a last option “is probably the least likely and it would be, by far, the most ruinous for both countries and for the region. Iran can deal Israel a serious blow but it will almost certainly be defeated in any plausible scenario.”

He added, “What happens next depends entirely on the course of action that the Iranian regime decides to pursue.”

*Writing by Rania Abu Shamala