Early voting surge by new voters could sway key US swing states

By Merve Berker

New voter turnout is surging in early voting for the 2024 US presidential election, with trends among Democratic women in Pennsylvania and Republican men in Arizona suggesting these fresh participants could play a critical role in key swing states, according to press reports on Friday.

With nearly 60 million ballots already cast, early voting data provides insight into the dynamics of this year’s presidential race.

An NBC News Decision Desk analysis shows a substantial influx of new voters -- those who did not participate in the 2020 election -- turning out in significant numbers in crucial battleground states.

- Pennsylvania and Arizona

The impact of new voters is particularly evident in Pennsylvania, where over 100,000 ballots have already been cast. This number surpasses Biden's 2020 margin over Trump in the state, highlighting the potential influence of these new participants.

Most strikingly, Democratic women are leading the way among Pennsylvania's new voters, nearly doubling the number of new female Republicans. This strong presence could shift the balance in a state widely seen as essential for both campaigns.

In Arizona, however, the pattern reverses. Male Republican new voters dominate the early voting landscape, indicating robust Republican engagement in the state. Additionally, new Republican female voters slightly outnumber new Democratic female voters, suggesting an early turnout advantage for Republicans.

Arizona’s 2020 election margin was notably slim -- just over 10,000 votes -- meaning this rise in Republican-leaning new voters could have a significant impact.

Adding complexity, a sizable portion of new voters in both Pennsylvania and Arizona have chosen not to affiliate with any party. These unaffiliated voters could either strengthen or undermine the apparent party advantages in early turnout, making their leanings a crucial unknown in the race.

- Michigan and Wisconsin

In other swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, varying trends are emerging.

While these states do not record party affiliation, early estimates suggest that new Democratic female voters may outnumber their Republican counterparts, while new Republican men outpace Democratic men.

However, without hard data on party affiliation, these projections remain less certain, allowing room for variability in the final outcomes.

- North Carolina and Nevada

North Carolina and Nevada present a different scenario, with independent voters making up the largest portion of new voters.

This widespread independence adds further uncertainty, as the choices of these unaffiliated voters could ultimately tip the scales in these and other swing states.

With new voter turnout already surpassing 2020 margins in several battleground states, their potential influence cannot be understated.

Yet the lack of clear affiliation for many voters, combined with differences in voter registration practices across states, leaves room for speculation.

Analysts advise caution in interpreting these early numbers, reminding observers that while early voting offers a glimpse into the election, it cannot definitively predict the outcome.

Election Day -- including presidential and congressional elections -- is set for Nov. 5. But over 68 million people have already cast early ballots, according to the University of Florida's Election Lab.

About 1 million more Democrats than Republicans -- 13,015,856 to 12,135,666 -- have voted early either in-person at polling stations, or via mail.