EU braces for challenges in transatlantic ties as Trump begins 2nd term in US
'Transatlantic relationship as we know, it is probably going to be extremely challenging,' expert from European Union Institute for Security Studies tells Anadolu- 'Probably, US is going to properly shift its focus towards its territorial defense and security in Asia-Pacific,' says Giuseppe Spatafora- It "will be very difficult for EU to act and it's because, for one simple reason, that Trump doesn't like the EU as such,' says another expert
By Selen Valente
BRUSSELS (AA) - As US President Donald Trump, known for his anti-EU stance, takes office, experts believe that Brussels must push communication channels with Washington to maintain transatlantic relations based on mutual interests, particularly in the areas of defense, trade, and support for Ukraine.
Trump, who caused tensions in the traditional Washington-Brussels partnership during his first term in 2017-2021, assumed office on Monday as the 47th president of the US.
While preparing for potential crises during Trump's second term due to threats ranging from defense to trade, the EU leadership has also expressed hopes for fostering positive relations, sending optimistic messages at every opportunity.
Following Trump's inauguration, all top EU officials shared congratulatory messages, expressing hope for continued partnership.
- Challenges for EU
Giuseppe Spatafora, a transatlantic relations expert at the EU Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), told Anadolu that defense and trade would be the key areas where the EU-US relations will be tested.
Describing the current security environment as "the worst security situation that the EU has potentially ever faced," Spatafora underscored the importance of alliances and maintaining friendly relations with the US.
"My perspective is that the relationship with the United States must continue, ... at least, given the security environment we're facing, it is important to continue it," he said.
However, he added: "The transatlantic relationship as we know, it is probably going to be extremely challenging to not change forever from a position that tended to be one of like-mindedness and sharing similar values and being together."
However, he argued that these shared interests, particularly in defense, are not entirely misaligned.
"Probably the United States is going to properly shift its focus towards its territorial defense and the defense and security in the Indo-Pacific. But this doesn't necessarily mean the abandonment of Europe," he explained.
"It does mean an awareness that in the complex security environment, the United States will probably have to pick and choose their battles ... or the level of their goal, their focus, and at the same time, they'll have to think about their own reindustrialization," Spatafora added.
- Tensions in trade
In the realm of trade, Spatafora noted that the EU is a stronger partner than in defense.
However, he warned of potential clashes with the new administration, which has threatened to impose tariffs.
"In the trade dimension, obviously the EU is a stronger actor, but it's also one area ... of clashes with the new administration, which has threatened to impose tariffs. It may start not with Europe. It might start with China or with other countries," he noted.
On defense, he said: "Europeans have already begun increasing their defense spending, aligning with mutual interests. Continuing the relationship with the US, despite tensions, is essential."
- Ukraine and peace negotiations
Ondrej Ditrych, a senior analyst at EUISS specializing in Russia and Eastern Neighborhood policies, highlighted the EU's concerns about Trump's stance on supporting Ukraine amid its war with Russia.
"My sense is that the EU's support is likely to continue, it is important for Ukraine's defenses. This includes military material. It also includes training of Ukrainian units that participate in the defense.
"But of course, there are certain critical capabilities that I mentioned, that are being provided by the US, and in the very short term, these would be very hard to substitute, but it is still kind of, I would say, an ongoing task for the EU to be aware of what these are and have a plan how to make up for the US support over time," Ditrych told Anadolu.
He also pointed to differences in how the EU and Trump might approach peace in Ukraine.
"If there is, let's say, some sort of a bad deal on Ukraine, then that will only increase the chance that Russia will break the deal. And this is not certainly in the US interest," he said, adding the new US administration appears keen on enforcing some form of truce or peace agreement.
- Dealing with Trump through NATO chief
Juraj Majcin, an analyst at the European Policy Centre, highlighted the challenges the EU faces under Trump.
It "will be very difficult for the EU to act and it's because, for one simple reason, that Trump doesn't like the EU as such," he told Anadolu.
Majcin noted that Trump, who previously pressured Europe to increase defense spending, now demands allies allocate 5% of GDP to defense.
While Europe has made significant progress in defense spending compared to the first Trump administration, Majcin argued that conveying this progress to the US remains a challenge.
Majcin suggested that the EU leverage NATO and figures like NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, who he described as "Trump's whisperer."
Rutte is "also very straightforward on the European level. He's not afraid of saying that alliance should spend more so," he said.
"I would recommend EU to work in cooperation with NATO ... and Mark Rutte," he added.
Majcin also warned of the "Elon Musk factor," stating that the Trump administration, with support from influential figures like Musk, may attempt to exploit divisions within Europe by backing far-right movements to extract concessions from the EU.
* Writing by Necva Tastan Sevinc.
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