EU elections: European Parliament set for shift to far-right, greater fragmentation

By Beyza Binnur Donmez

GENEVA (AA) - This year's upcoming European elections, set to be held on June 6-9, will be pivotal for the EU as economic concerns and immigration issues, coupled with the rise of far-right parties, reshape the political landscape.

The increasing influence of right-wing parties in several EU nations could lead to a shift in the European Parliament and a reevaluation of key policy areas, including agriculture, migration, climate change, the Russia-Ukraine war, and the EU's competitiveness against global powers like China and the US. It could also affect the bloc's stance against the war in Gaza.

Parties like Marine Le Pen's National Rally in France, Matteo Salvini's League in Italy, and Viktor Orban's Fidesz in Hungary are among the represtatives of Europe's right-wing shift. These parties have tapped into economic and immigration concerns, offering populist solutions that resonate with a significant portion of voters​.

The polls now paint an overall picture of greater fragmentation in the European Parliament, with no single group claiming a clear majority​. But the question is, what is at stake in such a contentious legislature? Before diving into that, it would be better to first grasp what voters see as their primary concerns.

The economy remains a top issue for voters as inflation, unemployment, and sluggish growth have plagued multiple countries throughout the bloc since COVID. The lingering effects of the pandemic have left many European citizens feeling the stress of financial uncertainty, dwindling career prospects, and an ongoing surge in cost of living. Along with these worries come the effects of the war in Ukraine, which has disrupted supply chains and drove up energy prices, further straining household budgets.

Immigration is another crucial issue on the voter agenda. Across Europe, political and social tensions have flared over the influx of refugees and migrants, mainly from conflict zones in the Middle East and Africa. Many voters are concerned about the impact of immigration on national identity, social services, and security.

Climate change and national sovereignty are also among voters' concerns. Green parties have seen a surge in support, advocating for more aggressive policies to combat climate change and promote sustainability. Meanwhile, the rise of Euroscepticism, partly fueled by the UK's experience with Brexit, has led to heightened debates on the balance of power between national governments and Brussels.

- Risk of political gridlock

With traditional parties like the European People's Party and the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats losing ground to more radical groups on the right and left, the elections are likely only to exacerbate the fragmentation in Europe's legislative process.

This could impede the formation of stable coalitions and passage of legislation. The increased risk of political gridlock makes compromise and alignment between groups all the more necessary to drive critical initiatives related to climate change, digital transformation, and economic recovery.

The increased far-right presence would also ring the bells of a shift towards more restrictive immigration policies, a focus on national sovereignty, and pushback against deeper EU integration.

Additionally, nationalist and Eurosceptic parties could strain the bloc's unity. Policies promoting national interests over collective European goals may trigger conflict and hinder the pace of integration.

It could also influence the EU's external policies, particularly in relations with Russia and the US, as many far-right leaders advocate for a more conciliatory approach towards Moscow in a reversal of the Brussels' hitherto stance of supporting Ukraine "as long as it takes."

The far-right shift would also represent growing concerns for minority communities, especially Muslims, as a more substantial far-right presence in the European Parliament could lead to the implementation of more exclusionary and discriminatory policies.

Such a move would further complicate parliamentary representation for Muslims, who may find that their interests align more closely with the left and center-left parties that tend to recognize the value of diversity and multiculturalism.

- Elections

European Union citizens are gearing up for the elections on June 6-9.

More than 350 million voters will choose 720 members of the European Parliament to serve for a five-year term.

The number of seats each country gets varies by population. Germany, which has the greatest representation, has 96 seats, followed by France with 81 and Italy with 76. Malta and Luxembourg, which are among the smallest, have six each.

The European Parliament currently comprises of seven different political alliances, which are the European People's Party (Christian Democrats), the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament, the Renew Europe Group, the Greens/European Free Alliance, the European Conservatives and Reformists Group, Identity and Democracy Group, and the Left group (GUE/NGL).

The president of the EU Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, is seeking a second term in the elections.