Europe falling short on ammunition production promises to Ukraine: Investigative group

By Merve Berker

ANKARA (AA) – An analysis of military aid to Ukraine shows a significant discrepancy between reported figures and actual production capacity, meaning that Western pledges Ukraine fell short, said a Dutch-based investigative journalism collective on Monday.

Plans to produce and deliver at least 1.3 million artillery shells to Ukraine by the end of the year to bolster its ammunition stocks were announced by EU Commissioner for Internal Market Thierry Breton in January.

The EU Council also agreed in May to accelerate the supply of 1 million artillery shells to Ukraine within 12 months. Despite these plans, EU deliveries since the start of the year have significantly lagged, sparking concerns about a potential ammunition shortage for Ukraine's military.

However, according to an investigation by the Dutch-based Investigative Desk, the EU is exaggerating its promises to increase production of ammunition to support Ukraine in the ongoing war, as the group slammed the given numbers as a “fantasy.”

The EU claims that European arms companies will be able to produce between 1.4 and 1.7 million 155-millimeter NATO-standard artillery shells by the end of the year, but actual production capacity is “actually between 400,000 and 600,000 shells,” said the group.

Brussels is allegedly overstating Europe's munitions production capacity, while more capacity is needed to replenish stocks that have been drastically reduced.

“A well-informed industry insider” interviewed for the investigation said on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic: “There’s no such thing as 1.7 million capacity (of artillery shells) in all of Europe combined.”

- ‘Unrealistic figures’

Another “well-informed” source told the group that the figures given are “unrealistic.”

“Production increases across Europe are lagging behind with the current total capacity reaching a level of about 580,000 units per year,” the collective said, quoting the anonymous source.

“A PowerPoint presentation from German producer Rheinmetall, obtained by The Investigative Desk, confirms that the capacity in Europe is actually between 400,000 and 600,000 shells,” the group said.

“According to this document, other such producers and Rheinmetall together could produce 550,000 shells in 2024,” it added.

A separate source argued that the EU's production targets were unattainable and cautioned that miscalculations could have severe real-world consequences.

They criticized the overestimation of production capacity, warning that such false confidence might lead to a situation where factories are left without supplies, compromising support for Ukraine and NATO.

An EU Commission spokesperson, however, defended their figures, saying they are based on data from manufacturers, factory visits, and consultations with member states and manufacturers.

The spokesperson maintained that achieving a production capacity of 1.5 to 1.7 million under realistic conditions was feasible.