EXPLAINER - Indian-administered Kashmir set for first local elections in a decade

By Hilal Mir

​​​​​​​​SRINAGAR, Jammu and Kashmir (AA) - Local elections are set to kick off in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir on Wednesday, the first regional polls there since 2014.

Voting will be held in three phases – Sept. 18, Sept. 25 and Oct. 1 – followed by counting and results on Oct. 8.

The elections have greater significance as they are also the first since India scrapped the Muslim-majority region’s special autonomy in August 2019.

From 2018 to Aug. 5, 2019, New Delhi ruled the region directly through a governor who wielded as much authority as an elected government.

It was then made a federally ruled territory and has since been under a lieutenant governor with even more powers.

Although the bureaucracy-heavy office of the lieutenant governor will still retain significant control, the return of an elected setup is being seen as a welcome relief, as citizens will have access to their own government and a local parliament called an assembly.

- Who is voting and for what?

The Himalayan region of Kashmir is split between India and Pakistan, who rule over parts of the territory but claim it in full, and the nuclear-armed neighbors have fought two of their three wars over the region.

A small sliver of Kashmir is also held by China, and tensions between Beijing and New Delhi over that dispute have escalated significantly in recent years.

In 2019, the Indian-administered part of the region was divided into two separate entities, one being Jammu and Kashmir and the other being Ladakh. New Delhi refers to them as “union territories,” a term used for regions directly controlled by the Indian federal government.

According to the Election Commission of India, nearly 9 million people are registered to vote for the 90-member Jammu and Kashmir Legislative Assembly.

The seats are distributed between the two areas that together make up the union territory – 47 for Kashmir and 43 for Jammu.

Voting will be held for 24 seats in Wednesday’s first phase, followed by 26 seats in the second phase, and 40 seats in the third.

The party or coalition that gets a majority will be invited by the lieutenant governor to form a government, which will be led by a chief minister and his council of ministers.

- Will this change Kashmir’s power structure?

This vote will lead to a limited transition of power from New Delhi to the local assembly, as Jammu and Kashmir will remain a union territory under direct federal control and the Indian Parliament will be its top legislature.

Before its autonomy was scrapped, the region had its own constitution, a flag and a bicameral assembly that could make laws independently of India’s Parliament.

Just before the elections were announced, New Delhi also further increased the powers of the lieutenant governor, giving them the final say over senior bureaucracy and critical divisions such as the Anti-Corruption Bureau, Directorate of Public Prosecutions, and the Prisons Department.

Final approval for the appointment of the advocate general and other top law officers will also be with the lieutenant governor.

The new government will get limited control over matters related to taxation, education and culture, but no authority over police or security issues.

Last year, India’s Supreme Court validated the changes made to Kashmir’s status in 2019, but ordered New Delhi to hold local elections and restore the region’s statehood.

The government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged to follow through on the order, but has not given any timeline.

- Parties and promises

In Muslim-majority Kashmir, the two largest parties, National Conference (NC) and People’s Democratic Party (PDP), have made the restoration of autonomy their main campaign pledge.

The NC has stuck a seat-sharing arrangement with the main federal opposition party, Indian National Congress, to put up a combined front against Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

The BJP has strong support in Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu, but virtually no base in Kashmir, where it will rely on smaller forces such as Apni Party and People’s Conference.

Fighting it alone is the PDP, whose electoral fortunes have dwindled since it formed a government in alliance with the BJP in 2014.

The major challenger to the established political parties, at least in the northern constituencies of the region, would be the Awami Ittehad Party led by Sheikh Abdul Rashid, also known as Engineer Rashid, who is a member of India’s Parliament from Kashmir.

Jailed since 2019 for his opposition to the scrapping of the autonomy, Rashid was dramatically released on bail just last week.

Another surprise in this election is the participation of the Jamaat-e-Islami, the region’s largest religiopolitical organization which has opposed Indian rule and boycotted elections for decades.

The Indian government has declared the party an “unlawful organization,” which is why it is fielding 13 of its members as independent candidates.

- Leaders and surprise candidates

Omar Abdullah, a former chief minister, has entered the race in two constituencies, changing his previous position that he would not contest any elections until Kashmir’s statehood was restored.

On one of the two seats, he will face off directly with another prominent figure, Sarjan Barkati, a former pro-freedom leader, currently in jail on “terror funding” charges.

PDP leader Mehbooba Mufti, the only woman to hold the office of chief minister in the region’s history, has decided to sit out this election, still reeling from public backlash over forming a coalition government with the BJP in 2016.