EXPLAINER – Iran’s presidential runoff: Who is competing and who has the edge?

By Syed Zafar Mehdi

TEHRAN, Iran – Iran will hold a runoff presidential election on Friday, its first since Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani faced off in one nearly two decades ago.

In 2005, Ahmadinejad emerged out of nowhere to defeat the heavyweight reformist Rafsanjani, who had previously served two terms as president from 1989 to 1997, ending 16 years of reformist dominance.

Now, 19 years down the line, a low-profile reformist lawmaker will take on a prominent conservative figure with a history of key government positions.

Masoud Pezeshkian, whose candidacy was rejected by the Iran’s top vetting body in 2021, surprised many by securing the highest number of votes in the first round of the presidential election on June 28, well ahead of his more famous opponents.

Pezeshkian bagged 10.4 million votes, or 42.5% of the total, while his closest rival, Saeed Jalili, the former lead nuclear negotiator and head of Iran’s top security body, ended with 9.4 million votes, or 38.6%.

With both falling short of the 50% mark, they will go head-to-head as they bid to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash on May 19.

Polling stations will be open on Friday from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. (0430 GMT to 1430 GMT), but as seen in the first round, the time can be extended until midnight (2030 GMT) to accommodate more voters.

- Who are the candidates and what are they promising?

Pezeshkian and Jalili launched their runoff campaigns last Sunday, a day after the results of the first round were announced, and outlined their vision in two televised debates on Monday and Tuesday.

The debates saw some heated exchanges, particularly on issues such as sanctions, inflation, housing, internet filtering, the Islamic dress code, and economic policies.

Pezeshkian, who served as health minister in former President Mohammad Khatami’s government (2001-2005), argued that the country must break free from its current deadlock to resolve economic problems, asserting that no government has ever prospered in isolation.

He attributed the main cause of inflation to a government that depletes citizens’ financial resources, while reaffirming his commitment to justice and eliminating discrimination.

The reformist lawmaker from the northwestern city of Tabriz, who is backed by the Iran’s leading reformist alliance, also pledged to pursue negotiations on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal and addressing issues raised by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which are key points on the reformist agenda.

Pezeshkian, who made two unsuccessful bids for the presidency in 2013 and 2021, has indicated that he is more open to diplomatic engagement with the world, including the West, and intends to initiate reforms in both economic and cultural domains.

Jalili, meanwhile, argued that the US must be held accountable for not fulfilling its commitments under the nuclear deal, asserting that Iran is in a position to demand concessions on the nuclear deal as well as with regards to FATF.

He reiterated that his government would make the US “regret” its decision to impose sanctions on Iran, vowing to continue Raisi’s efforts to this end.

Jalili’s past notable assignments include leading the country’s nuclear talks with the US in 2007-2013 under then-President Ahmadinejad.

He also served as head of the Supreme National Security Council, a top influential security body in the country.

Before that, he was deputy director for North and Central America at the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

In 2013, Jalili made his first bid for the presidency and finished third, while in 2021 he pulled out in favor of the eventual winner, Raisi.

In 2013, he was appointed by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the Expediency Council, a powerful administrative assembly tasked with resolving policy disputes in the country.

Jalili has advocated strongly for mandatory hijab, accusing the West of concealing the “glorious role” Iranian women in various fields. He called the hijab a dress code to “preserve and strengthen the sanctity of the institution of family.”

- Who is leading and will voter turnout be a factor?

Opinion polls conducted during and after the debates showed Pezeshkian with a slight edge over Jalili, but the margin is very small.

Experts predict a close contest in the runoff, with much depending on whether the 60% of the population that boycotted the previous round will vote or not.

Voter turnout on June 28 was around 40%, the lowest since the 1979 Iranian revolution, prompting top officials to urge greater participation in the runoff vote on Friday.

In the 2021 presidential election, when Raisi was elected by a landslide in the first round, the turnout was 48.8%, the lowest at that time.

In the parliamentary elections this March, voter turnout was 41%.

Supreme Leader Khamenei, in remarks on Wednesday, reiterated his call for increased participation on Friday, while both candidates have also made passionate appeals for people to come out.

Pezeshkian is heavily relying on his loyal reformist voter base, and his chances would improve if those who boycotted the first round vote in the second.

Many of those who boycotted the previous round are disillusioned with the economic situation in the country, but Pezeshkian’s surprisingly strong performance might persuade them to head to the polls.

Jalili’s prospects, on the other hand, depend heavily on the 3.4 million votes, accounting for 13.8%, that went to parliament speaker and fellow conservative Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf in the first round.

Qalibaf and two other candidates, Alireza Zakani and Ghazizadeh Hashemi, who withdrew from the race a day before the vote, have already urged their supporters to back Jalili.

However, there is still uncertainty about whether Qalibaf’s supporters, who expected Jalili to withdraw in their candidate’s favor, will heed the call.