EXPLAINER - Russia's nuclear doctrine: Key threats and decision-making criteria

By Elena Teslova

MOSCOW (AA) – Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on Tuesday approving the country's updated nuclear doctrine, titled the Basic Principles of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence.

The document outlines conditions for the use of nuclear weapons, threats deemed serious enough for use, the order in which the plan for the use of nuclear weapons is activated, decision-makers, actions to keep nuclear forces in combat readiness, and policy for "nuclear deterrence"— a plan for preventing nuclear attacks by ensuring that any nuclear aggression results in devastating retaliation.

While the principle of nuclear weapons as a last resort for protecting Russia's sovereignty remains unchanged, the criteria for their use have been revised.

The signing of the decree enabling the new version of the nuclear doctrine coincided with the US authorizing Ukraine to use Western-made weapons to strike deep inside Russian territory, though Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stressed that the publication of the doctrine was already "planned."

- Conditions for nuclear weapon use

In the previous iteration, the doctrine specified that the use of nuclear weapons would be triggered by aggression threatening the very existence of the state. However, the updated version provides more clarity, stating that nuclear weapons may be used in response to aggression that directly threatens Russia’s sovereignty and/or territorial integrity.

The updated doctrine sets out clear conditions for the use of nuclear weapons, including the scenario in which aggression from non-nuclear states is backed by nuclear powers; this would be treated as a joint attack.

Even conventional weapons that pose a critical threat to Russia's sovereignty may trigger a nuclear response as well.

Particular focus is given to Belarus, where any aggression is regarded as an attack on Russia, justifying nuclear retaliation.

The document also highlights potential military threats such as anti-missile systems, military buildups near Russian borders, and nuclear weapons stationed in non-nuclear states.

For the first time, a "potential opponent" is defined, encompassing states or military alliances that see Russia as a threat and possess significant military power.

- Nuclear deterrence

Russia constantly implements measures aimed at preventing "unfriendly states" and military alliances from attacks and hostile actions during peacetime, heightened threat levels, and wartime, up to the potential use of nuclear weapons.

The deterrence includes forming and maintaining up-to-date nuclear forces capable of delivering “guaranteed unacceptable damage” to any adversary, alongside ensuring that all of them have no doubt about Moscow's readiness and resolve to engage them if necessary.

If aggressors attack Russia or its allies, they must be prepared for retaliation, the doctrine states.

Nuclear deterrence targets states and military alliances that view Russia as a threat, including those providing resources or territory for aggression.

Aggression by a non-nuclear state backed by a nuclear power will be treated as a joint attack, while any military coalition's aggression will be seen as the bloc's collective action.

- Threats

The list of military threats countered by nuclear deterrence includes 10 key dangers, the most notable of which is the presence of potential adversaries equipped with nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction.

It also includes the deployment of advanced systems such as missile defense, medium- and short-range cruise and ballistic missiles, high-precision non-nuclear and hypersonic weapons, and attack drones.

The buildup of foreign forces, including nuclear delivery means or related military infrastructure, near Russia’s borders has also been designated as a significant threat.

Additionally, the deployment of missile defense, anti-satellite systems, and nuclear weapons on non-nuclear states' territories is viewed as perilous.

The expansion of military alliances and the approach of their infrastructure to Russian borders is considered a distinct threat, alongside potential threats such as territorial isolation, destruction of hazardous facilities, large-scale military exercises near borders, and the unchecked spread of weapons of mass destruction.

- Decision-Making

Russia's decision to use nuclear weapons is triggered by several conditions, including the launch of ballistic missiles at Russia or its allies, the use of weapons of mass destruction against Russian or allied territories, and attacks on critical state or military facilities that would impede nuclear response.

In addition, conventional aggression against Russia or Belarus that threatens sovereignty, as well as large-scale aircraft and missile attacks across Russian borders, are among the criteria for enabling a nuclear response.

The Russian president makes the final decision on nuclear use. He may also inform other nations or international bodies about the readiness or actual use of nuclear weapons.

Sergey Markov, a former adviser to President Putin, told Anadolu that the new doctrine “equalizes conditions with the US,” as the threshold for nuclear weapon use is lower in the West than in Russia.

Markov highlighted that the US nuclear doctrine allows the use of nuclear weapons to protect its allies, which Russia had not considered until now.

Putin first announced the changes in his September 25 address at the biannual nuclear deterrence conference, citing the “rapidly changing military and political landscape” and new military threats as key reasons for the update.

The most recent amendments to the doctrine follow updates made in 2020, which outlined four key scenarios in which Russia could use nuclear weapons: a nuclear or weapons of mass destruction attack on Russia or its allies, a conventional attack threatening Russia's existence, a ballistic missile attack targeting Russia, and an attack on critical infrastructure that undermines Russia’s nuclear capabilities.