EXPLAINER – S. Korean lawmakers to impeach president: What are possible scenarios?

By Riyaz ul Khaliq

ISTANBUL (AA) – South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol is facing impeachment after his failed attempt to impose martial law for the first time in 45 years.

Yoon declared imposing martial law at 10.25 p.m. Tuesday (1325GMT) but announced lifting it within six hours at 4:27 a.m. Wednesday, (1927GMT, Tuesday).

The president’s reversal of martial law was forced after a majority of the South Korean lawmakers rejected his decision that he said was “necessary to protect the country from North Korea's communist forces and to eliminate anti-state elements.”

Yoon’s abrupt late-night TV announcement sent shockwaves around the country, triggering protests as soldiers landed on the parliament premises to ban political activities.

It was the 17th time that martial law was imposed in South Korea but was short-lived. The first time martial law was imposed on the Far Eastern nation was on Oct. 21, 1948.

- Impeachment process and requirement

At least six opposition parties led by the main Democratic Party (DP) filed the impeachment motion against Yoon in the parliament, locally known as National Assembly, after they accused the president of “treason.”

They demanded the Yoon administration’s accountability for the “unconstitutional and illegal” declaration of martial law.

The DP dominates the 300-seat Parliament with 170 seats besides support from almost 22 other lawmakers.

While the opposition bloc has rendered the Yoon administration toothless in implementing policy decisions, including the budget, its numbers are not enough to successfully impeach the president.

An impeachment vote against the president requires the support of two-thirds of lawmakers – 200 or more – to oust a sitting president.

In the case of officials, other than the president, a simple majority can impeach them.

About 190 lawmakers voted down Yoon’s decision to impose martial law.

It remains to be seen whether the opposition bloc is able to get some ruling People Power Party (PPP) members to cross the floor against Yoon, whose term ends in 2027.

The opposition needs the support of at least eight lawmakers to oust Yoon.

The motion also comes amid the Yoon administration’s friction with PPP leader Han Dong-hoon, who regretted the president’s decision.

Amid the unfolding developments, the vote to impeach Yoon is likely to be held as early as Friday.

- Role of Constitutional Court

In case of a successful impeachment vote, Yoon will be suspended from office and the prime minister will have to take the role in an “acting” capacity.

But South Korea’s Constitutional Court would have to conduct a trial of the process, including taking into account evidence from lawmakers on whether or not the law was violated.

The process may take six months to confirm the impeachment.

In that case, the new presidential election must be held within two months from the date the Constitutional Court confirms parliament's motion to oust the president.

Yoon was elected for a five-year term in a tight presidential battle in April 2022 against DP leader Lee Jae-myung.

However, the top court currently lacks quorum as three positions of nine full-time justices remain empty.

It is likely that Prime Minister Han Duck-soo will take steps to fulfill the quorum before the Constitutional Court decides on the possible impeachment vote.

Notably, South Korea’s Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae said the Supreme Court will review the procedures that were followed in Yoon's declaration of martial law.

It is to “ensure its role as the ultimate protector of citizens’ rights and freedoms and will work to alleviate any concerns about judicial independence and integrity,” he said.

If Yoon decides to resign, the elections must be held within six months, and until then the prime minister will take the charge.

- If impeachment vote fails

In case the opposition fails to oust the president, the Yoon administration is expected to remain at loggerheads with the opposition-dominated parliament.

Almost all policy decisions require Yoon to seek approval from the lawmakers, who he has blamed for “paralyzing” the judicial and administrative systems.

Yoon’s top aides have stepped down while the entire Cabinet of Prime Minister Han has offered to step down.

- Yoon’s reasons for martial law

Yoon, frustrated by an opposition-dominated parliament, pointed out that 22 impeachment motions were filed against his administration since May 2022.

At least 10 such motions were filed since June after the ruling PPP lost majority in the April parliamentary elections this year.

“Our National Assembly (Parliament) has become a haven for criminals, a den of legislative dictatorship that seeks to paralyze the judicial and administrative systems and overturn our liberal democratic order," Yoon said during his national address to impose martial law.

His administration also saw three motions to probe first lady Kim Keon-hee’s role in the Yoon government.

Kim has been accused of influencing the ruling PPP, accepting a luxury handbag as a gift from a Korean American pastor, involvement in a stock manipulation scheme, and meddling in government affairs.

Prosecutors, however, decided not to indict her.

Not only has Yoon been at odds with the opposition, but his administration has run into conflict with the ruling PPP leader Han Dong-hoon.

Han had stressed that an independent probe into allegations against the first lady was crucial to “restore public trust.”

- North Korea’s silence and ban on uniformed personnel

Parliamentary authorities imposed a full ban on the entry of personnel from the Defense Ministry, military forces, National Assembly Guard, and police officers.

Kim Min-ki, secretary-general of the parliament, said some 280 troops broke into the National Assembly after Yoon declared martial law.

Opposition DP also claimed soldiers tried to arrest its leader Lee in an attempted raid.

Yoon’s move to impose martial law also comes with ties between divided Koreas remaining at a low ebb.

Pyongyang has not reacted to developments in Seoul unlike in 2016 when former South Korean President Park Geun-hye was ousted from his office.