EXPLAINER – Thailand heads to elections under shadow of conflict and uncertainty

By Berk Kutay Gokmen

ISTANBUL (AA) – Thailand heads into crucial general elections this Sunday amid renewed deadly border clashes with Cambodia and deepening political uncertainty at home, with analysts warning the vote could determine whether the country breaks free from years of fragile coalition governments.

More than 50 million eligible voters will choose 500 lawmakers in an election widely seen as a test of Thailand’s political direction. The polls were called after the lower house of parliament was dissolved on Dec. 12, a year before the end of its four-year term.

The result will decide who forms the next government and whether caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul can retain power.

Adding to the stakes, voters will also take part in a constitutional referendum on the same day, deciding whether to begin the process of rewriting Thailand’s military-era constitution – a move that could reshape the country’s political system.

Experts note that Bangkok has seen three different governments in just three years since 2023, underlining what they describe as Thailand’s “high level of political fragility.”

- Election process

More than 5,000 candidates from 57 political parties are running for the 500 seats in the House of Representatives.

Thailand uses a mixed electoral system in which citizens cast two ballots: one for a local constituency representative and another for a political party.

Of the 500 seats, 400 lawmakers are elected through constituency contests, while the remaining 100 are allocated proportionally based on nationwide party votes.

Advance voting took place last Sunday for those unable to cast ballots on election day, and vote counting will begin immediately after polls close.

Preliminary constituency results are typically known within hours, but official certification by the Election Commission can take several weeks. Only after certification will the new parliament convene to elect a prime minister.

Pavin Chachavalpongpun, a professor at Kyoto University’s Center for Southeast Asian Studies, said: “The significance of the 2026 election lies in its role as a potential catalyst for structural change through a simultaneous general election and a historic constitutional referendum.”

- Contenders and favorites

Although dozens of parties are competing, analysts say three main political forces are shaping the race: the conservative-populist Bhumjaithai Party, the reformist People’s Party, and the once-dominant Pheu Thai Party.

Caretaker Prime Minister Anutin’s Bhumjaithai party has positioned itself as a guarantor of stability, benefiting from a surge of nationalist sentiment following clashes along the Thai-Cambodian border.

Dozens have been killed, including civilians, since fighting flared last July before a renewed ceasefire took effect in December.

According to Mark S. Cogan, associate professor of Peace and Conflict Studies at Kansai Gaidai University, “Bhumjaithai has been a power broker party, not doing well enough to claim a large majority, but well enough to bargain for a prime position in a coalition government with Anutin as prime minister.”

The reformist People’s Party – successor to the disbanded Move Forward Party – continues to enjoy strong backing, particularly among young voters and urban constituencies.

Wanwichit Boonprong, a Thai political scientist at Rangsit University, said: “The People’s Party is showing strong momentum across all polls … (and could) be the leading party in this election.”

However, he cautioned that the party faces stiff resistance from conservative and military-aligned groups, making government formation difficult even if it wins the most seats.

Pheu Thai, long associated with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, enters the race weakened by leadership disputes and internal divisions. Analysts say its traditional rural support base has partly drifted toward newer reformist forces.

- Expected outcomes

Few observers expect any single party to secure an outright majority, making coalition bargaining almost inevitable.

Cogan said, “If the People’s Party wins, it will have difficulty getting a stable coalition together, mainly of minority parties.”

Wanwichit offered a similar assessment, predicting that “the People's Party is likely to win the election, but probably won’t get half of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives.”

In a fragmented parliament, Bhumjaithai could once again emerge as kingmaker, potentially allowing Anutin to remain prime minister even without leading the largest party.

Pavin described the most probable outcome as “a fragmented parliament where no party reaches a 251-seat majority.”

He added that deep divisions between reformist and establishment forces may further complicate coalition talks, reducing the chances of cooperation between traditional rivals.

- Implications for Thailand’s future

Beyond the immediate question of who forms the next government, the election will test whether Thailand can escape its cycle of short-lived administrations and political resets.

Pavin warned that powerful unelected institutions still hold decisive influence. “Any government formed must still operate within the narrow ‘red lines’ defined by these unelected power centers,” he said, referring to the monarchy, the military and the judiciary.

Border tensions with Cambodia are also likely to shape the next government’s agenda. While nationalist rhetoric has dominated recent weeks, analysts say practical diplomacy will be essential.

Cogan noted, “The next government will have an obligation to control the conflict and seek broader dialogue.”

“These boundary issues are old and they are historic. They are not likely to be completely resolved soon, so the reestablishment of diplomatic talks and moderate tone will be critical in the short term,” he added.

Despite the high stakes, many analysts remain skeptical that the vote will produce sweeping reforms.

“I don’t expect major reform during this election cycle, as most parties have moderated reform messaging and focused most of their energies into economic issues that aim to shore up Thailand’s ailing economy,” Cogan said.

Wanwichit said Thailand’s recent history shows how unstable coalition politics has become. The fact that the country has had three governments since 2023, he said, highlights “the country’s high level of political fragility, particularly the constant need for strategic maneuvering within coalition governments.”

He argued that genuine reform will remain elusive unless conservative power centers agree to change. “No political party has shown any serious effort to reform politics,” he said.

Pavin agreed, saying that real transformation depends on the constitutional referendum.

“Genuine reform is unlikely unless the Feb. 8 referendum leads to a total rewrite of the 2017 Constitution,” he said.

But, he warned, that even if the public favors reforms, “the process remains hostage to ‘institutional gatekeepers’ in the Senate and the courts, who can delay or derail the drafting of a new charter.”