EXPLAINER – What is driving turmoil in Chad?

By Aurore Bonny

DOUALA, Cameroon (AA) — Yaya Dillo Djerou, the main opponent of Chad's military authorities, was killed in an army assault on his Social Party without Borders (PSF) last week in the latest of a string of incidents amid "fratricidal" political instability in the Central African nation.

A day after Dillo's demise on Wednesday, the government, which had only recently announced fresh presidential elections on May 6, accused the opposition leader of involvement in an earlier attack on the country's National Security Agency.

In what the opposition leader, 50, had described as a "staged event," at least seven people died as attackers stormed the agency offices in the capital N'Djamena, according to authorities.

The government statement on Thursday alleged that the attackers were "led by PSF elements, headed by the movement's president, Yaya Dillo." One member of the party that had attempted to "assassinate the President of the Supreme Court" in a separate earlier incident, at added.

While Dillo was being sought on Wednesday, weapons rang out in N'Djamena, according to various concordant reports in local media. The following day, he was announced dead by the prosecutor of the city's tribunal de grande instance, Oumar Kebellaye, at a news conference.

Kebellaye reported dozens of deaths and injuries, as well as 26 arrests.

These events come a day after the announcement of the first round of the presidential elections scheduled for May 6, in which Dillo and his cousin Mahamat Idriss Deby Itno were due to take part.

Deby, 37, took over the reins of the country following the 2021 assassination of his father, who had ruled for over three decades. He was proclaimed president of the political transition in the country by fellow soldiers on April 20 of the same year. Upon taking power, he had promised to organize elections within 18 months, but postponed the deadline by two years.

After news of the death of Dillo, a fierce opponent of the president, the secretary general of Deby's party, the Mouvement Patriotique du Salut, declared that "so-called political players have tried to undermine the transition process as it draws to a close," as quoted by the Chadian media.

- Not a surprise

The African Union Commission, headed by Chad's former Prime Minister Moussa Faki Mahamat, sent a message of condolence to the victims of these events in a statement on Thursday, regretting "the recourse to violence." He spoke of the need for Chad to genuinely resume inclusive dialogue with all political, social, civil, and military forces for a future of stability, democracy, and shared prosperity.

According to Regis Hounkpe, a geopolitics specialist from Benin, Dillo's "brutal and tragic death" occurred in a very violent context, in the run-up to a presidential election whose outcome is not unknown.

Hounkpe, who is the head of Interglobes Conseils, a France-based firm specializing in geopolitical expertise, asserted that Chad's ruling junta has politically devitalized the system by associating with Prime Minister Succes Masra, a member of Dillo's political family,

"The liquidation of opponents in Chad is no longer surprising, but what is disconcerting is obviously the pace and scale of the human tragedy it generates. It's no longer the presidential election that chooses and eliminates the head of state's candidates or potential opponents, it's his army that carries out the macabre sorting out," he said in a phone interview with Anadolu.

- Red flags for elections

This situation is explosive, according to Moise Dossoumou, managing editor of Fraternite Matin, a daily newspaper in Benin, and the president of a network of African journalists specializing in defense and security issues.

"With two months to go to the presidential election scheduled for May 6, security signals are red. At a time when Chad, one of the least-developed countries in the world according to the World Bank, with a population of over 17 million, is experiencing an economic stagnation.

"The population is driven by hunger and the high cost of living, while the virulent opponent, now a member of the government, is trying to seduce the USA into providing funds to relieve public finances. Chadians are witnessing a fratricidal war that is taking the republic hostage," he lamented in a telephone interview with Anadolu.

In addition to the struggle against the high cost of living and the political intrigues, the May 6 election is also likely to be held under critical conditions, according to him.

In March 2021, Dillo's mother also died after the army stormed her son's home, the government calling it a "reprisal."