Fears grow over rumored Nigerian rebel talks

By Rafiu Ajakaye

LAGOS, Nigeria (AA) - After months of violence, threats and unofficial talks, the main militants in Nigeria's oil-rich delta region have agreed to dialogue with the government.

In what it calls a show of good faith, the Niger Delta Avengers -- the group blamed for pipeline bombings which recently brought local oil production to below one million barrels per day -- has declared a cease-fire.

So has the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, or MEND, another militant outfit believed to wield substantial influence in the region.

The groups say their agitation revolves around alleged exploitative and unethical activities by oil companies as well as a failure of the Nigerian state to develop the region which supplies so much of the country’s wealth.

Nigeria depends almost entirely on revenue from the crude oil found in the delta.

However, critics have told Anadolu Agency they fear the groups are seeking a pay-off similar to a 2009 amnesty scheme for former militants which has swallowed millions of dollars.

Nevertheless, in spite of its recent deployment of troops to the area as part of Operation Crocodile Smile, Abuja has said it is willing to sit down with the insurgents.

Analysts say the government could no longer ignore the militants whose activities Vice President Yemi Osinbajo on Tuesday said had led to daily losses of at least one million barrels of crude in the past six months.

Nigeria had aimed for daily production of 2.2 million barrels per day in its 2016 budget estimates. This came as the price of crude hovers between $40 and $45 per barrel, down by about 60 percent from the 2014 average.

However, opinions are divided on the proposed talks.

Some have warned the government not to talk to the militants, fearing it may lead to payouts after the groups sabotaged the economy. These skeptics want the government to crush the insurgents, dismissing them as criminals.

An ongoing government amnesty program for militants who embraced peace in 2009 has gulped millions of dollars in monthly payouts.

The state says around $345 million ($203 million in 2014; $77.4 million in 2015; and $64.5 million in 2016) has been spent on the monthly payouts over the last three years alone.

The 2009 amnesty -- backed by former President Umaru Yar’Adua -- followed wanton destruction of infrastructure in the region by militants who said they were fighting for a fair share of oil revenue.

At least 30,000 former militants bought into the amnesty, although there are indications more former fighters have been integrated.

Those against the new talks say such huge payments enrich only a few people from the troubled area while providing an incentive for others to embrace violence.

-Dialogue-

Another challenge, they contend, is the propensity for other violent groups emerging if those who sabotaged government properties are compensated in the end.

"As things stand now, the best way to bring about peace in the region must include dialogue," Nnimmo Bassey, a senior pan-African environmentalist, told Anadolu Agency.

He stressed the need to douse tension and then address the real issues in the region such as restoring livelihoods and bringing development to its people.

Bassey -- director of the Health of Mother Earth Foundation, an environmental think-tank and advocacy group -- added: "This would include oil companies effectively maintaining their facilities and the government strictly enforcing regulations.

“We must show the citizens that human life and the health of the environment are of higher importance and value than crude oil and foreign exchange.

"This posture is the best way to show that antisocial behaviors are undesirable and counterproductive.

“When we elevate crude oil and the U.S. dollar above the health of the environment and our people we simply show the points at which counter actions may be taken to catch the government's attention. That is what breeds militancy."

Ryan Cummings, a security analyst with Signal Risk, said he favored the government "making better deals" directly with oil communities instead of dealing with militants.

"I believe that compensatory mechanisms provided to militants in the absence of addressing the socio-economic grievances in the Niger Delta will incentivize, as opposed to de-incentivize, militancy in the region," Cummings told Anadolu Agency.

According to him, the post-2009 amnesty scheme was supposed to be a stop-gap measure to help the government end rampant violence and implement much-needed reforms which would create a permanent peace.

"Consequently, as long as the government continues to treat the symptoms and not the causes of the violence, either through compensation or military action, it's not going to bring a long-term peace to the Niger Delta," added Cummings.

-‘No alternative’ to talks-

However, Ledum Mitee, who chaired the government committee which pushed the 2009 amnesty, told Anadolu Agency there could be no “credible alternative” to the government sitting down with the militants:

“The suggestion that dialogue would encourage violence stems from the wrong perception that dialogue is synonymous with or must necessarily end in appeasements.”

Mitee who was also a close colleague of the late non-violent environmental activist Ken Saro-Wiwa -- hung along with eight others in 1995 by former Nigerian strongman Sani Abacha -- believes talking to militants while ignoring the main issues that fuel their agitation is a non-starter.

“It is wrong, in my view, to think that the problem of the Niger Delta was militancy," he insisted.

"The problem was of development, environmental pollution and marginalization. Now, militancy was what I would call an extreme expression of people's reaction to that state of affairs," the activist added.

Although talks between both sides seem inevitable, analysts say the future of such engagement lies in how much sincerity both parties bring to the table. However, Abuja has yet to announce any start date or appoint a negotiating team.