[For Wednesday-From Analysis News Desk] OPINION - France is gradually losing its influence in Africa

By Jonathan Fenton-Harvey

-The author is a researcher and journalist focusing on conflict and geopolitics in the Middle East and North Africa, primarily related to the Gulf region.

ISTANBUL (AA) - French President Emmanuel Macron is grappling with dual crises of legitimacy – one at home and another abroad. Domestically, his administration faces growing unpopularity, as shown by the Dec. 4 collapse of the government led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier following a vote of no-confidence.

Internationally, Macron is witnessing the erosion of France’s once-dominant influence in Francophone Africa, a region long considered Paris's geopolitical "backyard" even after the breakup of the French Empire.

In late November, Chad announced it would terminate its decades-long military cooperation agreement with Paris, and Senegal followed just hours later.

Both countries, which hosted a combined 1,350 French troops, framed their decisions around their desires to uphold national sovereignty – a sentiment that has increasingly presented French military presence as an obstacle rather than a safeguard.

-Pattern of decline in Francophone Africa

Chad and Senegal’s surprise decisions are part of a broader trend of anti-French sentiment across Western Africa, particularly in the Sahel region.

In recent years, military coups in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have been accompanied by vocal public opposition to the French presence, as well as wishes from the juntas themselves to eject France’s military presence.

In Mali, French troops were expelled following the junta's decision to engage with the Russian paramilitary Wagner Group for security assistance. Similar dynamics unfolded in Niger and Burkina Faso, further shrinking France's military footprint in the region.

The loss of Chad is particularly consequential for Paris. For decades, Chad served as a cornerstone of France's military strategy in Africa, enabling the projection of power into Libya, Central Africa, and the Sahel. Senegal’s decision to terminate its agreements is equally symbolic, ending a presence that stretches back to the 1960s.

The ejection of French troops not only reduces Paris' regional influence but also reflects how leaders have looked for alternative partnerships after arguably feeling bullied in their relations with Western leaders.

This was further exemplified when Niger’s military junta terminated its military cooperation agreement with Washington this March – after ordering France to withdraw its 1,500 troops from the country.

However, Niger’s leaders then embraced cooperation with Russia’s military. Ultimately, post-colonial nations in the Sahel have sought new partnerships, not only with Moscow but also with China.

-Turning towards the Anglosphere

In response to its waning influence in Francophone Africa, France has sought to cultivate ties with Anglophone African nations, where the historical baggage of colonialism is less pronounced. Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, has become a key focus.

In November, Nigerian President Bola Tinubu visited Paris, where the two nations signed a $300 million pact to develop critical infrastructure, renewable energy, transportation, agriculture, and healthcare. Additionally, Nigerian banks – Zenith and United Bank for Africa – signed agreements to expand operations into France, signaling a willingness for deeper economic integration.

And earlier this year, France also deepened ties with Kenya and Rwanda, securing significant agreements on infrastructure, climate action, and development to broaden its Anglophone partnerships.

France’s pivot to Anglophone Africa is not without challenges. There has been some skepticism among regional analysts over whether France can be a reliable partner, particularly considering its track record in the Sahel and concerns over resource exploitation – such as uranium in Niger, gold in Chad, and oil in Mali – as well as neglecting development in that region.

-Adapting to a new world

France’s setbacks in West Africa have served as a wake-up call, arguably shattering its traditional focus on hegemony centered on military aid and instead highlighting the need to build equal and genuine partnerships across the continent.

While Macron’s outreach to Anglophone Africa signals Paris is adopting a new strategy, his administration must confront the realities of a multipolar world where Africa is increasingly looking beyond the “Global North.” Indeed, African nations are forging partnerships with diverse players, such as Türkiye, China, India, and the United Arab Emirates, moving away from the historical ties that once tethered them to Europe.

For France, this means acknowledging that its influence in Africa will never return to what it once was – and that success lies in adapting to this new reality.

If it fails to do so, France runs a high risk of being relegated to the sidelines in the continent, dampening Macron’s efforts to keep France relevant in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape where military agreements and historical ties have less importance.

*Opinions expressed in this article are the author's own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Anadolu.