‘Geopolitical sweet spot’: Modi’s Russia visit showcases India’s balancing act, say experts

By Hilal Mir

SRINAGAR, Jammu and Kashmir (AA) – Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first visit to Russia since the start of the Ukraine war is a message that India wants to maintain a foreign policy dictated by its own interests, rather than geopolitical concerns, according to analysts.

Messages of comradery were on full display in Moscow, from Russian President Vladimir Putin greeting a beaming Modi with a hug and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s statement that the relationship of the two leaders spans over two decades.

The warmth exuded by both during their meetings drew a sharp response from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

“It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” Zelenskyy said on X, referring to the missile strike on a children’s hospital in Kyiv that Ukraine and its Western allies have blamed on Moscow, which has denied the allegations.

Over the past decade, Modi has been to Russia six times and met Putin at least 17 times.

This trip was the Indian premier’s first bilateral foreign visit since winning a third consecutive term in office last month, lending it all the more significance.

India’s new strategic ally in the West, the US, urged Modi to use his time in Moscow to emphasize Ukraine’s territorial integrity, indicating that Western powers believe India has not done enough to match the pressure they have been exerting on Russia.

India has so far refused Western entreaties to condemn the Ukraine war, speaking instead about the need to respect international law and sovereignty and territorial integrity.

Modi repeated this line in Moscow, saying that “war cannot solve problems” and the way forward is through dialogue and diplomacy.​​​​​​​

For Praveen Donthi, senior analyst for India at the International Crisis Group, Modi’s balancing act come as no surprise.

“India’s most trusted and time-tested bilateral relationship is probably with Russia. It’s been at the heart of India’s foreign and strategic policy for a long time,” he told Anadolu.

“It strengthened after the 1971 rapprochement between the US and China, with its archrival Pakistan already close to them. New Delhi signed a treaty with Moscow to balance the alliance.”

He pointed out that Moscow also “helped India by sharing nuclear technology when the West was reluctant.”

“There remains a strong affinity for Russia among the Indian foreign policy establishment and some residual distrust of the West,” said Donthi.

“Though India is steadily moving closer towards the US and other Western allies, that aspect might not overwhelm India-Russia relations.”

- Defense, business and beyond

Russia remains India’s largest arms supplier, even though its share of Indian defense imports slipped from 62% between 2013-2017 to 36% between 2019-2023, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

New Delhi is also expecting the delivery of two remaining S-400 air defense missile systems from Russia, with the US having given India a waiver to procure the weapons.

Another sore point between the West and India over the Ukraine war has been New Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil at steep discounts after Western sanctions.

From 2% before the war, India’s oil imports from Russia have jumped to 40%, making it the largest buyer of Russian oil.

A joint statement at the end of Modi’s visit said the two countries agreed to boost bilateral trade, which already stands at $65 billion, to $100 billion by 2030.

It also included plans to eliminate non-tariff barriers, develop a “bilateral settlement system using national currencies,” ironing out customs procedures, and using new connectivity routes, including the Chennai-Vladivostok maritime route, the Northern Sea Route, and the International North-South Transport Corridor via Iran.

Investments in the energy sector, including nuclear energy, infrastructure development, and investment promotion were identified as “priority areas.”

This cooperation, according to Donthi, shows that India “believes in giving Russia more options and avenues to engage with, rather than leave it alone to China.”

He asserted that even the West is “beginning to see the benefits of having India as Russia’s friend … (as) evident when the EU bought a lot of Russian oil via India.”

- ‘A pole in a multipolar world’

Wajahat Qazi, an international relations expert, sees India keeping its options open in an increasingly multipolar world.

“Despite the West’s wooing of India into its orbit, India, albeit in a different permutation and combination, remains wedded to its strategic autonomy foreign policy paradigm,” he told Anadolu.

“The timing of the visit is interesting. At a time when the West has Putin in its proverbial sights, Modi’s visit appears to be a show of support.”

Modi’s visit also has several other dimensions, such as China and the domestic political situation.

Suvojit Bagchi, a political analyst, said Russia remains an “all-weather friend in the neighborhood that India can return to as a moderating factor in regional issues.”

During the border standoff between India and China, Russia played a mediator role, he pointed out.

Bagchi also alluded to Modi’s domestic standing “as a strongman” like Putin, saying his actions at international forums bolster this image.

In his third term, which comes with a reduced mandate and coalition pressures, he will need to scale this up to strengthen his grip on power domestically, according to Bagchi.

“The Russia visit is also a step in that direction,” he added.

On international relations, he said Modi has always counted pursuing an “interest-based foreign policy” as one of his major achievements since taking power in 2014.

Donthi, the International Crisis Group expert, emphasized that India is in “a geopolitical sweet spot, thanks to its image as a democratic counterbalance to China.”

“The underpinnings of its foreign policy right now are about pursuing self-interest, and it sees geopolitics as becoming increasingly transactional,” he said.

“India aspires to be a pole in a multipolar world, so it will continue to maintain a balance between the West and Russia.”