German coalition collapse a necessary step, unlikely to trigger a democratic crisis: Expert

By Ayhan Simsek

BERLIN (AA) – The recent collapse of Germany’s coalition government signals a necessary political overhaul rather than a systemic crisis, according to a prominent German political scientist Hajo Funke.

In an interview with Anadolu, Funke provided insights into the factors leading to the coalition’s downfall and its potential implications for Germany’s political landscape.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s left-liberal coalition government had been largely ineffective in addressing economic and social problems over the past couple of years, Funke asserted.

He attributed this inefficiency largely to the Free Democratic Party’s (FDP) stance, particularly its opposition to increased government spending, new debt, and its reluctance to support proposed investments.

“This collapse seems to have been necessary because this ‘traffic light coalition’ has engaged in a lot of internal warmongering, nearly conflicts,” he said, pointing out that the approval rating of the coalition of the Social Democrats, Greens and the liberal FDP had reached unprecedented lows.

“That was especially because of the fact that the rightwing-ish liberal party (FDP), the smallest party in the coalition, didn’t accept the coalition treaties and dealings anymore. It was utterly destructive. So, in that sense, it has done a lot of misery,” he said.

The approval rating of Scholz’s coalition government, often referred to as the “traffic light coalition” due to the colors associated with its member parties, had fallen to 14% earlier this month, according to a representative poll by public broadcaster ARD.

“So, we are … because of the internal turmoil of the coalition… in a political crisis… along with the economic crisis, alongside the challenge by the Ukraine war and other wars,” Funke said.

“So, it was an internal misery that they were not consistent enough, and Chancellor Scholz had not the chance to manage it because the trustworthiness, especially of the FDP against the Greens and the Social Democrats, was so low, that it was necessary to end this coalition.”

The FDP, known for its fiscal conservatism, consistently blocked plans for increased government spending and new debt, which put it at odds with its coalition partners.

Specifically, the FDP opposed ambitious climate goals and initiatives for substantial investments in renewable energy transition, a key priority for the Greens.

The party also resisted proposals aimed at increasing employment through government-funded programs and expanding social expenditures, positions championed by the Social Democrats.

- AfD’s rise and the coalition’s failure

Funke drew a direct line between the coalition government’s poor performance on major issues and the increased voter support for the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in recent years.

“Definitely the misery in the performance, in the consistency of the politics of the ‘traffic light coalition’ helped the AfD. It’s very clear. It is shown by surveys,” he stated.

“People wanted, and want, functioning, efficient, trustworthy politicians and coalitions, and that has not been the case.”

According to recent polls, the AfD’s support is approximately 17% nationally, positioning it as the second most popular party in Germany.

Many AfD supporters cite concerns over immigration policies, economic decline, and a perceived lack of responsiveness from mainstream parties to their concerns.

The party has capitalized on these sentiments, presenting itself as an alternative to what it portrays as an ineffective political establishment.

“In Germany, the far right has increased its importance, radicalized itself furthermore, so the far-right AfD is more far right compared to the French version, and similar to the Austrian version. It is a danger,” Funke warned.

“They are very aggressive. They are racist. They want to have an authoritarian so-called people’s republic,” he added.

- Path to early elections

Funke foresees intense debate in the coming days and weeks regarding the timing of early elections and potential coalition formations.

“There is a pressure, and how to combat this pressure will be seen in the next days. So, it can be that with this maneuvering back and forth, the governing parties may decide to come to new elections in February or even in January,” he said.

According to the German Constitution, early elections can be triggered if the chancellor loses a vote of confidence in the parliament, or Bundestag, and the president dissolves parliament at the chancellor’s request.

Social Democrat Scholz suggested last week he could call for a vote of confidence in January, opening the way for early elections in March.

But the opposition Christian Democrats are insisting that early elections should be held in January at the latest. CDU’s leader Friedrich Merz proposed holding the elections on Jan. 19, a day before US President-elect Donald Trump takes office.

Despite the current political upheaval, Funke believes it is unlikely to lead to a systemic crisis that could threaten Germany’s democratic system.

“It’s wrong to expect that this is a total crisis of our democracy. I don't see it. It’s the collapse of this poorly accepted traffic light coalition, and it was time for this to end,” he asserted.

Funke pointed out that the CDU/CSU alliance, which is currently polling around 34%, has taken a clear stance against the far-right AfD, and ruled out any cooperation with the right-wing extremists.

He highlighted the possibility of a grand coalition between the SPD and CDU/CSU as a likely scenario after the new elections, while also noting that other combinations involving the Greens and the conservatives could also emerge.

“If the central parties, from center-left to center-right, the mainstream parties, gain ground and form a coalition next year, we will be fine,” he said.

“There won’t be a real danger for democracy at the core.”

He concluded on a note of cautious optimism: “For the federal level, they can manage it. We still have the social democrat party, and a functioning conservative popular party … Because of this quasi-solidity, I’m relatively sure that if they don’t take huge risks and make huge mistakes, they can manage it – be it in a grand coalition of Social Democrats and Christian Democrats, or in a different version with the Greens and the CDU.”