Global commodities mixed as Trump’s auto tariffs, geopolitical tensions sway markets

By Tunahan Kukurt and Mucahithan Avcioglu

ISTANBUL (AA) – Commodity markets posted mixed results last week as US President Donald Trump’s newly signed auto tariffs and escalating geopolitical developments drove investor sentiment and reshaped price expectations, with attention now turning to upcoming US Department of Agriculture (USDA) data.

Trump’s executive order slapping a 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks aimed to bolster domestic manufacturing, though critics and analysts say it has heightened uncertainty over US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled the Fed may delay its next rate cut due to ongoing economic volatility.

- Gold rallies, Bank of America hikes forecast

Geopolitical jitters and safe-haven demand sent gold to new record highs. Bank of America raised its 2025 gold forecast to $3,063 per ounce, up from $2,750, citing the uncertainty created by Trump’s “aggressive” trade policy and broader geopolitical risks.

Amid central bank buying and haven flows, gold hit a record $3,086.79 before ending the week at around $2,085 per ounce. Platinum, palladium, and silver also climbed, with gains of 0.8%, 1.3%, and 3.3%, respectively.

- Copper hits 10-month high, other base metals mixed

Copper surged to $5.33 per pound during the week — its highest in 10 months — due to supply constraints, weaker dollar, and support from China. It later eased to $5.08. Nickel rose 2.5%, while aluminum, lead, and zinc dropped by 2.3%, 0.8%, and 3%, respectively.

- Trump threatens tariffs on Venezuela oil buyers

Oil prices saw modest gains, rising 0.9% for Brent crude, driven by a larger-than-expected drop in US stockpiles and fears of disrupted Venezuelan and Iranian supply. Trump warned that countries purchasing oil or gas from Venezuela will face a 25% tariff on trade with the US.

Natural gas on NYMEX climbed 2.7%, supported by stronger US demand.

- Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks weigh on wheat prices

Agricultural commodities saw mixed movement. Wheat fell 5.3% and corn dipped 2.4% as Russia-Ukraine ceasefire hopes boosted expectations for uninterrupted grain exports via the Black Sea.

Soybeans and rice rose 1.2% and 0.7% respectively, supported by rising palm oil prices. Cotton jumped 2.5%, while sugar and coffee declined 3.4% and 3%, respectively. Cocoa ended the week up 3.6% per ton.

Ethanol output declines and rising US stockpiles also weighed on corn, while USDA data and ongoing weather conditions remain key factors for agricultural pricing in the weeks ahead.