Global energy demand to grow by over 25 pct by 2040

By Firdevs Yuksel

ANKARA (AA) - Global energy demand is predicted to grow by more than a quarter between 2017 and 2040, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2018 on Tuesday.

The IEA's report showed that population growth with an extra 1.7 billion people mostly in the urban areas of developing economies, along with urbanization and economic growth, are among the main trends shaping global energy demand.

"As recently as 2000, Europe and North America accounted for more than 40 percent of global energy demand, and developing economies in Asia for around 20 percent," the report said.

The report further contended that by 2040, the situation would completely reverse, reflecting a huge change in the geography of global energy consumption.

According to the report, developing economies will lead the growth, where demand is set to increase by some 45 percent between 2017 and 2040.

"Energy demand in India more than doubles over the outlook period by 2040, despite China's position as the world’s largest energy consumer in 2040," the report said.

As developing economies in Asia will account for almost half of global energy demand by 2040, outside Asia, demand growth will mainly come from the Middle East and North Africa with demand in 2040 projected to be more than 60 percent higher.

"Energy use in Africa as a whole rises by just under 60 percent and surpasses that of the EU towards the end of the outlook period, although it remains the lowest consumer of energy on a per-capita basis," the report said.

Energy needs in Central and South America will grow less rapidly than other developing economies, but will still rise by almost 40 percent by 2040, while in North America, demand will remain flat throughout the period, the report showed.

"Demand in Eurasia increases by only just over 10 percent as robust increases in Caspian countries are mitigated by much more subdued growth in Russia," according to the report.

"The corollary of the rising share of primary energy demand going to developing economies is a reduction in the share accounted for by advanced economies," the report said.

However, noticeable declines will be only visible in the EU and Japan, where demand is anticipated to fall by 20 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

Energy policies also play a critical role in the growth of energy demand, according to the report. However, the increase would be around twice as large if it were not for continued improvements in energy efficiency, a powerful policy tool to address energy security and sustainability concerns, the agency warned.

- Asia as a main destination for energy trade flows

The profound shift in energy consumption in Asia is felt across all fuels and technologies, as well as in energy investments.

Asia makes up half of global growth in natural gas, 60 percent of the rise in wind and solar PV, more than 80 percent of the increase in oil, and more than 100 percent of the growth in coal and nuclear.

Moreover, international energy trade flows are increasingly drawn to Asia from across the Middle East, Russia, Canada, Brazil and the U.S., as Asia's share of global oil and gas trade is projected to rise from around half today to more than two-thirds by 2040, the report showed.