Global markets mixed as all eyes turn to US presidential elections

By Mahmut Cil

ISTANBUL (AA) - Global markets were mixed on Monday ahead of the US presidential elections as all eyes turn to the close race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, both of whom are at more or less 48.5% in the polls.

Five of the seven swing states will be decisive in the outcome of the elections, and while Trump leads in five swing states, Harris is ahead with small differences in two as of now.

Trump’s presidential program is to impose new tariffs, tax cuts, and increase fossil fuel, while Harris sticks to policies similar to the Joe Biden administration, such as reducing costs and taxes for the middle-class.

The Fed is expected to cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 4.50 to 4.75 this week following last week’s employment data, while market expectations for a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December are still maintained at 82% in the money markets.

Analysts say that the Fed’s policy decision and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements will influence asset prices and give clues into the bank’s future roadmap.

Meanwhile, new factory orders in the US fell above expectations by 0.5% in September.

As for corporate, Trump Media and Technology Group’s shares gained more than 12% on Monday as volatility increased with the elections so close.

US chipmaker Nvidia will join the 30 companies in the Dow Jones index on Friday, replacing its rival Intel. Nvidia’s shares climbed 0.5% while Intel’s fell more than 3% upon this news.

The US-10 Year Futures bond is at 4.31% on Tuesday, while the US Dollar Index started the day at 103.9.

Meanwhile, the ounce price of gold closed Monday on a horizontal course at $2,737.5 and it is trading 0.1% below on Tuesday at $2,735.

The barrel price of Brent crude oil increased 3.2% on Monday and closed at $75.2, though it started Tuesday on a 0.2% decline at $75.

On the New York Stock Exchange, the Dow Jones fell 0.61%, the S&P 500 0.28%, and the Nasdaq 0.33% on Monday. American index futures started Tuesday on a mixed course.

As for European stock markets, a downward trend came to the fore on Monday except for the UK, while estimates are still uncertain whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will issue a rate cut in December.

The eurozone’s manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 46 points in October—its highest in five months, while the investor confidence index for Germany rose 1.7 points to minus 29.8 in November, the second consecutive month in a row.

On the European stock markets on Monday, the DAX 40 fell 0.56%, the CAC 40 0.50%, and the FTSE MIB 30 0.39%, while the British FTSE 100 index climbed 0.09%. European index futures started Tuesday on a negative course.

As for the Asian equity markets, a positive course came to the fore on Tuesday, except for South Korea.

Chinese markets’ risk appetite increased after Premier Li Qiang said once again that China will achieve its economic growth target of around 5%, as the country has ample space for fiscal and monetary policy.

Meanwhile, China’s Caixin services PMI went over expectations at 52, while Caixin composite PMI remained high at 51.9 in October. Last month, both PMIs were at 50.3.

As for Türkiye, the country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.88% and the Domestic Producer Price Index (D-PPI) climbed 1.29% month-on-month in October.

Annual inflation fell to 48.58% in consumer prices and 32.24% in domestic producer prices.

The US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate closed Monday at 34.3445, up 0.1%, while it is trading on Tuesday at 34.3540, just above its previous close.

*Writing by Emir Yildirim