Historic election defeat for Japan’s ruling party: What next?

By Riyaz ul Khaliq

ISTANBUL (AA) – Japanese voters handed a historic defeat to the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) over the weekend, leaving Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba scrambling to find coalition partners for a new government.

LDP’s main partner Komeito, a party backed by a large Buddhist group, also faced a drubbing, losing at least 16% of its vote share.

In the 465-member lower house of parliament, the LDP is down to 191 seats from 256, while Komeito lost eight seats, including that of its chief Keiichi Ishii, and fell to 24.

LDP and Komeito together are short 18 seats for a simple majority of 233, and do not hit the mark even with the support of six independents.

This is the first time since 2009 that the LDP, which has ruled Japan almost uninterruptedly since 1955, has lost its majority.

There are increasing calls within Japan for the LDP to give way to a new government. A survey by local agency Kyodo News over the past two days had 53% of respondents saying they “do not want the ruling coalition” to continue.

The Ishiba-led Cabinet has also seen its approval rate plummeting to 32.1%, a steep fall from 50.7% before the vote.

- Unorganized opposition makes substantial gains

The main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ) made significant gains in the elections, boosting its seats to 148 from 98.

Yoshihiko Noda, the CDPJ chief, has reached out to other parties to support his bid to become prime minister when the parliament, locally known as the Diet, meets on Nov. 11.

The Oct. 27 snap elections were held at a testing time for Prime Minister Ishiba and the scandal-plagued ruling LDP, but the divided opposition was unable to put up a unified front against the ruling coalition.

Both LDP and CDPJ have turned to the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) and Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) for support.

DPFP increased its parliamentary seats from seven to 21, while Ishin dropped a few from 43 to 38.

Ishiba has indicated the LDP may continue its government by seeking outside support to his Cabinet on a case-to-case basis.

When the vote for the next government is held, there are three likely scenarios, including the LDP getting support from Komeito, six independents, and possible defectors from opposition parties.

The other possibility is the CDPJ takes the lead to form a government with the support of various parties.

The third, and most likely, scenario is the LDP-Komeito coalition gets support from the DPFP, taking their number above 240, including the six independent lawmakers.

- Tricky coalition conditions

The reduced mandate means that the LDP needs to find another party to form a coalition and the partners “should be able to support the overall agendas of LDP, both for domestic and foreign affairs issues,” according to Jingdong Yuan, director of the China and Asia Security Program at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).

“Voters were clearly concerned with their economic well-being,” said Jingdong, referring to Japan’s sluggish economy, which has slid down to fourth spot globally in recent years.

Before the elections, he said opposition parties raised concerns that defense budget hikes could lead to more burden on the economy.

Japan has pledged to double its defense spending by 2027, which Jingdong said, “can only be achieved by a fast-growing economy, reallocation of government spending, as well as higher taxes – none of which is either realistic or pleasant.”

Saul Takahashi of Osaka University agreed, saying the “corruption scandal was the immediate trigger” for the LDP’s defeat, “but on a more fundamental level, people are fed up with the economy going nowhere.”

“Wages have remained stagnant for over 30 years, and inflation is beginning to bite hard with the greatly weakened yen,” he told Anadolu.

- Push for LDP reforms

The LDP has been battered and divided in recent years by a scandal over undocumented political funds.

In recent months, prosecutors have raided LDP offices and even charged some members. The party also had to deal with the problem of influential factions within its setup.

Ishiba, who was elected party president in September and became prime minister in October, had promised change and reforms for the LDP to be “reborn.”

“The promised reforms offered by Ishiba after he secured LDP presidency didn’t materialize. Voters were disappointed and therefore turned to other parties,” said Jingdong.

Most LDP lawmakers caught up in the funds scandal belonged to the now-dissolved faction led by former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was assassinated in 2022.

In the new parliament, that faction, which once boasted over 100 lawmakers, has been reduced to only 20 elected members, a development many see as a boon for Ishiba and his push for reforms.

- Where are things headed?

Takahashi emphasized that the LDP is “still the first party” in Japan, despite its “major defeat.”

It is unlikely that Japan will have a government without the LDP, he said.

“The opposition doesn’t have enough seats, even in the unlikely event they were to all get together. Of course, if the Buddhists jumped the coalition, that would be a different story, but nobody sees that happening,” he said.

“All that points to an LDP-led coalition. But will that just mean business as usual, with either or both of the kingmaker parties becoming a de facto branch of the LDP? Or will this lead to something more reflective of what the people want? It’s hard to say,” he said.

These elections were “one of those occasions where a lot of people are surprised – not the least, I would suspect, the opposition parties themselves,” said the academic.

The DPFP and Ishin party are the clear kingmakers at this point, and they “both have platforms that are comparable to the LDP’s, though with a somewhat more populist slant,” according to Takahashi.

Nobody “will be surprised if either one, or both, of them enter into a LDP coalition,” he said, adding that the DPFP remains more open to the prospect.

“There are some policy differences, and we have to see how tough they will negotiate,” he said.

“The LDP is actually in a pretty good bargaining position with the two kingmaker parties, because it only needs one of them to get over the line.”