How will Israel fare against Hezbollah on the ground?

By Rabia Ali

ISTANBUL (AA) — As tensions flare in the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, with the Lebanese group reporting the deaths of 17 Israeli soldiers in the south of the country, questions now arise on Israel’s abilities on the ground.

Despite the assassination of Hezbollah’s secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, in a massive bombing and the wounding of hundreds of its members in an attack involving exploding communication devices, analysts suggest that the group remains capable of offering stiff resistance on its home turf.

“Hezbollah is still capable of causing some severe trouble for any invading force, whether the Israelis or any invading force that could come in,” security analyst Ali Rizk told Anadolu.

- Ground invasion to favor Hezbollah

Experts suggest that any ground invasion in Lebanon could turn the tide in Hezbollah’s favor.

Rizk pointed to a recent speech by Hezbollah’s deputy leader, who stated the group is prepared for such an offensive.

“A ground invasion is the best possible way that could boost Hezbollah’s morale after it suffered these consecutive setbacks. They can inflict heavy losses,” Rizk said, emphasizing that the group’s deep familiarity with southern Lebanon offers a crucial advantage against an invading force.

Nasrallah’s assassination has not dampened Hezbollah’s resolve, he added.

“In fact, it might even have increased the fighting spirit and the morale because Hezbollah fighters now will see themselves as more determined against this enemy.”

While Hezbollah continues to let loose barrages of rockets on Israel, the group also remains “a very strong fighting force” on the ground.

Samer Jaber, a PhD researcher at Royal Holloway, University of London, and an expert on the Middle East, concurred, noting that Hezbollah also had the advantage of its extensive underground infrastructure, along with its knowledge of the country’s terrain.

“Hezbollah has built a subterranean network and infrastructure designed to support prolonged confrontations with Israeli forces. This gives the Lebanese resistance both a tactical and strategic edge from an operational standpoint,” Jaber explained.

In contrast, Israeli forces are primarily trained for conventional warfare, with a blend of US-developed urban counterinsurgency tactics. This asymmetry could lead to fierce resistance favoring Hezbollah fighters, he added.

- Lessons from previous wars

Reflecting on earlier conflicts between Hezbollah and Israel, Jaber pointed out key differences between the 2006 war and the current situation.

“In 2006, Hezbollah had limited missile capabilities, only able to target locations in Haifa and northern Israel. Hezbollah primarily relied on guerrilla tactics and direct confrontations within a limited area, with most of the fighting occurring on Lebanese territory in southern Lebanon.”

Today, Hezbollah’s missile arsenal is more advanced, with the capability to strike anywhere in Israel, shifting part of the battlefield onto Israeli territory.

“While Israel retains a significant advantage with its air force, it loses this edge in ground operations, as it cannot deploy its full aerial capabilities in such engagements,” Jaber added.

He noted that the 2006 war, which lasted 36 days, left both sides exhausted. In the current confrontation, Hezbollah seems intent on prolonging the war, gradually intensifying its operations. Israel, which began with overwhelming force, may see its advantage diminish over time.

Rizk agrees, saying that Hezbollah is a much more effective fighting force than it was in 2006.

“It was very successful, and I think now it will possibly be even more successful, given that it has very much grown.”

- The guerrilla advantage

According to Jaber, Hezbollah’s blend of guerrilla and semi-conventional tactics affords the group considerable flexibility on the battlefield.

“Rather than focusing on holding territory, Hezbollah achieves supremacy through effective movement within the battlefield.”

Hezbollah’s ability to launch missiles and drones from various locations across Lebanon, not just the south, provides it with a strategic edge, Jaber noted.

Meanwhile, Israel holds significant advantages in cyber warfare and benefits from steady support from the US and European allies, ensuring a consistent resupply of ammunition and weaponry. However, as Jaber pointed out, the one resource Israel cannot replenish is human lives, stressing that as casualties among soldiers and civilians rise, the Israeli government faces increasing pressure to bring the conflict to an end.

Rizk highlighted the mismatch in tactics, noting that guerrilla movements like Hezbollah thrive by setting their own rules in combat. “It’s important to remember that guerilla movements or non-state actors, they don’t want to play by the rules of the game of the enemy. They want to set their own rules.”

This flexibility allows Hezbollah to maintain its momentum, regardless of Israeli actions.

“It’s not necessarily the case that if Israel hits Beirut, Hezbollah must hit Tel Aviv,” Rizk explained.

- Hezbollah’s military capacity and goals

Despite its losses, analysts highlight that Hezbollah’s military strength should not be underestimated. The group’s missile stockpile is estimated to range between 120,000 and 200,000, with Israel itself saying that it has yet to destroy even 50% of the stockpile, according to Rizk.

Hezbollah also has tens of thousands of fighters, including elite units like the Radwan forces, which Rizk likened to military special forces.

“So imagine what could happen if the Radwan forces, the elite forces of Hezbollah, get involved. I think these are all very big warning signs of what awaits Israel,” he said.

For now, Hezbollah seems focused on inflicting heavy losses on Israeli ground forces. Rockets continue to hit Haifa, and while Hezbollah’s next steps remain unclear, the possibility of further escalation cannot be ruled out, he said.

On the Israeli side, there have been significant tactical successes, including the expansion of bombardments into new areas of Beirut. However, Rizk suggested that Hezbollah may be deliberately avoiding actions that could provoke a devastating Israeli response, such as strikes on critical civilian infrastructure.

“Israel hasn’t done that yet, and I think Hezbollah doesn’t want to give an excuse to Israel to do that,” he said.

- Israel’s failures in Gaza

The impact of Israel’s military losses in Gaza is being felt in Lebanon.

Jaber pointed to Israel’s struggles in Gaza, where heavy bombing campaigns have resulted in high civilian casualties but failed to secure a decisive victory against Palestinian groups.

“Israeli soldiers’ morale has also suffered, having fought in Gaza for almost a year with limited success. In contrast, resistance fighters in Lebanon are defending their own land, which provides strong motivation for steadfastness in the confrontation.”

Politically, Israel aims to pressure Hezbollah to withdraw its support for Gaza by inflicting heavy casualties on the Lebanese population, but this approach has backfired, with Hezbollah expanding its missile range and forcing more Israeli communities to evacuate, Jaber explained.