IMF estimates China's growth slowing to 4.6% this year

‘Deeper-than-expected contraction in the property sector could further weigh on private demand and worsen confidence,’ says IMF

By Ovunc Kutlu

ISTANBUL (AA) - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Friday it expects China's economic growth to slow to 4.6% in 2024, from 5.4% in 2023, due to ongoing weakness in the property sector and subdued external demand.

Growth in the world's second-biggest economy is projected to gradually decline to around 3.5% in 2028 amid headwinds from weak productivity and an aging population, it said in a statement.

Although inflation in China showed a significant decline last year with lower energy and food prices, it is expected to increase gradually in 2024 "as the output gap narrows and the base effects of commodity prices recede," according to the statement.

"Deeper-than-expected contraction in the property sector could further weigh on private demand and worsen confidence, amplify local government fiscal strains, and result in disinflationary pressures and adverse macro‑financial feedback loops," said the IMF.

"Greater-than-expected weakening of external demand, tightening of global conditions, and increased geopolitical tensions also pose considerable downside risks," it added.

Kaynak:

This news has been read 150 times in total