In battle between India and China, what next for Maldives?

By Rabia Ali

ISTANBUL (AA) – As Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu concludes his five-day trip to China, signing key agreements and enhancing bilateral ties, the fate of longstanding ties between Maldives and India is now in focus.

Recent days have seen simmering tensions between the two countries, triggered by online posts that escalated into the suspension of three Maldivian officials who mocked a social media post of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi vacationing in Lakshadweep, an archipelago in the Indian Ocean.

Calls for boycotting Maldives grew louder as Indian tour operators, travel agencies and holiday-goers cancelled vacation plans for the popular tourist destination, known for its white sandy beaches and turquoise-colored waters.

All this came at a time when Muizzu, seen as more inclined toward China than his pro-Indian predecessor Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, was rubbing shoulders with top Chinese officials, including President Xi Jinping.

China was Muizzu’s third foreign destination since becoming president last November, after trips to Türkiye and the UAE, with no plans yet for a tour of India.

- Ties with China

“Over the past decade or more, the Maldives have been swung between being overtly pro-China and overtly pro-India, with the previous government being closer to India,” analyst Gareth Price told Anadolu.

Muizzu, in his assessment, is trying to improve relations with China while remaining balanced and “in the middle,” for instance by ending both Indian and Chinese military presence on the island.

Price, a former senior research fellow of the Asia Pacific program at the Chatham House, believes that investment is the main driver for Maldives in enhancing ties with Beijing.

“In terms of wanting investment, China is better placed to do infrastructure spending and so forth, than India is. So that’s the argument for being with China,” he said.

During Muizzu’s trip to China, the two countries upgraded bilateral ties to a comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, signing at least 20 “key agreements,” related to economy, infrastructure development and other fields.

“At the same time, both India and China see the Maldives as geopolitically important just because of its large area and strategic position and so forth,” added Price.

The analyst believes that if the Maldives tilts towards China, then relations with India will deteriorate.

“India would obviously prefer a pro-Indian than a pro-Chinese Maldivian government,” he said.

Historically, India has been “reactive” when dealing with pro-Chinese Maldivian governments, but it is unclear what steps it will take to counter Chinese influence right now, he said.

According to Maldivian writer and journalist Ahmed Azaan, current tensions could have an impact on relations between India and Maldives, but Muizzu has reiterated on numerous occasions that he will pursue balance in international engagements.

“President Muizzu has repeatedly stated that he has a Maldives First policy and he will not put any other country before Maldives, which means not even India or China,” Azaan told Anadolu.

He sees Muizzu’s Beijing tour as very successful and fruitful, particularly with the agreements inked.

Based on past experience, China and Chinese companies will be able to deliver, he added.

- Expulsion of Indian troops

Muizzu, who is from the Maldives Progressive Party, built his electoral campaign around the “India Out” movement, which called for the expulsion of Indian troops from Maldives.

Upon taking office, he duly announced plans to expel foreign troops, sparking discussions about the potential impact on ties with New Delhi.

After his meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the COP28 summit in December, Muizzu said India had agreed to withdraw its troops, reportedly some 77, from Maldives.

Along with the soldiers, India currently has two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft stationed in Maldives, which were sent to assist with medical evacuations and sea surveillance operations.

A point of particular concern is the Uthuru Thila Falhu (UTF) naval base near the capital Male, according to Azaan.

This is a joint military base, and as per the agreement, Indian military could stay on the island for up to 15 years, he explained.

It is still under construction, with private Maldivian and Indian companies involved in the project, he said.

“So once the military base is completed, the figures will definitely increase, because it is a huge island and they will need a lot more than 77 soldiers to manage the base,” he added.

For Price, the move to expel Indian troops seems “sort of performative rather than substantive.”

“If there were thousands of Indian troops, that’s a different matter. But there aren’t. There’s a few operating a couple of helicopters,” he said.

India does not have a major military presence and their mostly involved in coast guard or search and rescue operations, he added.

- Public sentiments

According to Azaan, Muizzu’s electoral victory speaks for itself, as people chose to vote for him and his policy to expel foreign troops.

The Indian helicopters were brought in for medical aid and evacuation operations, he said.

He said Muizzu has now promised to bring in an air ambulance within the first 100 days of his tenure.

Once that happens, Azaan feels there is no need for India’s aircraft operations because the Maldives have experienced pilots, the largest seaplane base in the world, and a strong seaplane fleet.

“So, we won’t need the (Indian) military in any way,” he said.

However, analyst Bharath Gopalaswamy said India has been providing various essential services to Maldivians, and as the closest country, remains a key source for humanitarian assistance or disaster relief.

Muizzu, in his view, is most likely pandering to public statement to cement his own position, said Gopalaswamy, a former director at the Atlantic Council.

He argues that there cannot be an overnight change in such policies.

“Your own troops and your own personnel get adjusted to in economics. There is a concept called path dependency,” he said, referring to a social sciences theory about the impact of past events or decisions on later ones.

However, he said if the Maldives “just said no troops … then India does not have a choice.”

Price warned that the move could be somewhat “self-harming” for the Maldives, citing the island nation’s lack of capacity, but agreed about India having little say in the matter.

“I think India, on the one hand, it doesn’t want to be seen as a bully or whatever within its neighborhood, but at the same time, it doesn’t necessarily want an increased Chinese presence (in the region),” he said.

However, he added that India cannot compete with China, which has “deeper pockets and more experience in infrastructure (development).”

“If that’s what its neighbors want, then that’s why China’s presence across South Asia has increased over the past decade or so,” said Price.​​​​​​​