Int’l institutions revise up Turkey's GDP forecasts

By Bahattin Gonultas and Dilara Zengin

BERLIN (AA) - Despite the negative impact of the coronavirus pandemic globally, Turkey was one of a few countries that posted growth, pushing international organizations to revise their growth forecasts for the country.

While the pandemic hit the global economy hard in 2020, Turkey’s economy, contrary to expectations, posted a 1.8% growth.

Besides China, Turkey was among a few countries that recorded growth last year.

Economists said that Turkey's export in the first quarter showed a strong performance, up 17.3% to $50.2 billion, signaling further growth.

In the last quarter of 2020, the economy posted a 5.9% growth.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) , which previously predicted that the Turkish economy will grow by 5% this year, raised this forecast to 6% in January.

The revisions that started with the IMF continued with the updates from the leading financial bodies such as Moody's, Fitch, Standard & Poor's (S&P), UNCTAD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the World Bank.

In February, Moody's altered its growth forecast for Turkey from 3.5% to 4% for 2021 and 4% to 5% for 2022.

Fitch was another credit rating agency that revised upward the growth forecast -- from 3.5% to 6.7% for 2021, 4.5% to 4.7% for 2022.

S&P credit agency revised Turkey's economy growth forecast from 4.5% to 3.6% for 2021, and predicted that the country will grow 3.5% in 2022.

In March, in its interim report on the economic outlook, the OECD increased its growth expectation for the Turkish economy from 2.9%to 5.9%.

UNCTAD in its report on the course of global trade and development, published in March, upgraded its growth forecast from 2.4% to 4% for 2021.

The World Bank revised its economic projections and increased its growth forecast for 2021 from 4.5% to 5%.

With the World Economic Outlook Report to be published by the IMF on April 6, economic growth forecasts are expected to be revised upwards.