Iran election: Who is in the race and who is likely to reach the finish line?

By Syed Zafar Mehdi

TEHRAN, Iran (AA) - On the penultimate day of registration for Iran's upcoming presidential election, more contenders filed their nominations, including some prominent political figures.

Since the registration process opened on Thursday at the Interior Ministry in Tehran, the nomination papers of 37 candidates have been accepted, including 20 on Sunday.

More than 100 other applications were rejected for not meeting the requirements.

The snap presidential vote is scheduled for June 28, following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran on May 19.

Monday is the fifth and final day of registration. After that, the Guardian Council, the country's election supervisory body, will vet the candidates and release the list of qualified candidates on June 11.

The candidates cleared by the vetting body will have two weeks to campaign, present their manifestos, and participate in televised debates before the polling on June 28.

- Frontrunners

The candidates who have filed their nominations so far include some high-profile names from both the conservative and reformist camps, as well as centrists.

One of the first candidates to join the race on the first day of registration was Saeed Jalili, the former nuclear negotiator and head of the country’s top security body.

Only five applications were accepted on day one out of 30, including Jalili, a prominent conservative figure who said his focus would be on “service, honesty, efficiency, and justice.”

Jalili contested the 2021 presidential election but withdrew in favor of Raisi. In the 2013 presidential election, he finished in third place after eventual winner Hassan Rouhani and runner-up Bagher Ghalibaf.

While Jalili is seen as a probable candidate representing the conservative camp, Ali Larijani, a former speaker of Iran’s parliament, is believed to have the backing of the reformist camp.

Larijani, initially a conservative political figure, developed close ties with reformists during Hassan Rouhani's presidency when he served as the parliament speaker.

Notably, Larijani, who is the member of the Expediency Discernment Council, a top advisory body tasked with settling disputes, was disqualified by the Guardian Council in the 2021 presidential election.

After filing his nomination on Friday, he told reporters that “solving the issue of sanctions” will figure prominently in his priorities, if given the mandate.

Other formidable candidates who could spring a surprise include Tehran Mayor Alireza Zakani, a candidate in the 2021 presidential election who later withdrew in favor of Raisi.

Abdolnaser Hemmati, the former top banker and Raisi’s main challenger from the reformist camp in the 2021 election, is likely to be a cover candidate for other heavyweight reformists like in the past.

- Disqualifications looming

After the registration process ends on Monday, the applications of hopefuls will be reviewed by the 12-member election supervising body, the Guardian Council.

According to political observers, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the former president who filed his nomination amid fanfare on Sunday, is again likely to be disqualified.

Ahmadinejad, a conservative hardliner who served as Iran’s president from 2005 to 2013 and later fell out of favor with the country's top leadership, was disqualified in both the 2017 and 2021 presidential elections.

After filing his nomination, Ahmadinejad said the country's problems could be solved by making the “maximum use of available capacities,” adding that he was joining the race again "at the request of the people.”

There is also a big question mark over Larijani’s candidacy, who was disqualified in the 2021 presidential election when Raisi won by a landslide.

Many others who have successfully submitted their nominations are also expected to be disqualified, including many former lawmakers and academics.

- Unlikely candidates

There have been some unexpected nominations as well. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the registration of Zohreh Elahian, a former member of parliament who became the first woman to run for the presidency.

She announced that her election slogan would be "healthy government, healthy economy, and healthy society.”

Vahid Haqqanian, the former deputy head of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s office, was another unlikely candidate to file his papers on Saturday.

He insisted that he was running in a “personal capacity."

Mohammad Mehdi Esmaeli, the culture minister in the Raisi government, filed his nomination on Sunday, surprising many election watchers.

He was flanked by Raisi’s close aide and executive deputy Mohsen Mansouri. Esmaeli said he wants to continue on the path charted by the Raisi government.

- Last day surprises

Monday, which also marks the death anniversary of the founder of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Khomeini, is the last day of registration for the June 28 presidential election.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei will address a ceremony in Tehran on Monday, where top Iranian government figures, foreign diplomats and other dignitaries will be in attendance.

Speculation is rife that some heavyweight names will join the race on the last day.

The name of Mohammad Baqher Ghalibaf, a top conservative figure who was reelected as the speaker of the parliament last week, is circulating.

Experts believe that if Ghalibaf enters the fray, he will overshadow Jalili and likely become the conservative candidate.

Given the trend of low turnout in elections in recent years, the conservative candidate enjoys an edge over the reformist opponent.