Iran-Israel conflict escalates in Syria amid Persian Gulf normalization wave

By Syed Zafar Mehdi

TEHRAN (AA) - In the wee hours of Wednesday, semi-official Iranian media outlets reported that a drone attack on a military complex in central Isfahan city was thwarted by air defense systems.

Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi refused to confirm or deny the incident, saying more investigation was required.

It happened two months after a similar attack at the same site was blamed on Israel.

Notably, the latest incident came amid heightened tensions between the two arch-foes following Israeli air raids in northern Syria that killed two officers of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).

The slain officers were given mass funerals Tuesday in Tehran, followed by burials in their respective hometowns in the presence of senior political and military officials.

At the burial ceremony of Milad Heydari, one of the slain “military advisors,” senior IRGC commander Mohammad Reza Naqdi warned of a “firm and decisive response” to the killings.

“Israelis know they have received and will receive a harsher blow compared to what they have dealt to us,” he said at the ceremony in Western Kordestan province.

Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani also issued a statement that said Iran “reserves the right to respond” to the Israeli airstrikes “in due place and time.”

Israel has never publicly claimed responsibility for attacks on Syrian or Iranian military installations but it has also not outrightly denied claims made by Tehran.

- Israeli attacks in Syria

Hours before Kanaani’s statement, Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu at a weekly Cabinet meeting in Jerusalem fired a salvo at Iran without naming the country.

“We are exacting a high price from the regimes that support terrorism, beyond Israel’s borders. I suggest that our enemies not err,” he was quoted as saying, adding that the political crisis in Tel Aviv will not distract it from acting “wherever and whenever necessary.”

On Wednesday, Israel’s military chief, Herzi Halevi, reiterated the warning more explicitly, saying his county is “ready” to act against Iran and it has the ability to strike “in distant countries and near home.”

“We know how to act alone. We are a sovereign nation that reserves the right to make its own decisions. It would be good to have the United States on our side, but it is not an obligation,” he said.

Iran has lost many of its military officers stationed in Syria in recent years and it has almost always accused Israel for their killings. In November, Daoud Jafari, a senior officer in the IRGC’s aerospace division, was killed in a roadside bomb explosion on the outskirts of Damascus.

In March 2022, two IRGC officers were killed in an airstrike on the outskirts of Damascus, which was followed by Iran targeting what it referred to as the Israeli “strategic center" in Erbil in northern Iraq.

“Any repetition of attacks by Israel will be met with a harsh, decisive and destructive response,” an IRGC statement said at the time, a week after the killing of two Iranian officers.

Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a meeting with government officials last week, said Israel will soon “collapse,” adding that Israeli leaders are acknowledging it.

“The Israeli authorities themselves regularly warn that the collapse is imminent. Their president says it, their former prime minister says it, their security chief says it, their defense minister says. All of them say that their collapse is near,” he said.

Foreign Ministry spokesman seconded that thinking in a tweet the same day, insisting Israel “cannot escape” collapse despite attempts to “stoke war and insecurity” through “adventurous actions.”

Ebrahim Azizi, a senior lawmaker and deputy chairman of parliament’s national security and foreign policy commission, told to Anadolu that Israel has “often initiated the aggression” but “has not been able to determine” the nature and timing of retaliation from Iran.

He hastened to add that Iran will “continue to support” Syria, Lebanon and Palestine.

- Regional dynamics changing

The escalation of tensions between Iran and Israel comes in the wake of tectonic geopolitical shifts triggered by the rapprochement between Tehran and Riyadh as well as a new escalation in Al-Quds.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have now formally initiated the process of restoring diplomatic ties after seven years with top diplomats of the two countries meeting Thursday in Beijing.

Syria and Saudi Arabia have also agreed to bury the hatchet and open a new chapter in diplomatic ties.

Azizi said the far-right Israeli government seeks to “deflect attention from its internal crisis” and “negatively affect the process of rapprochement” between Iran and other countries.

“They want the Muslim world divided, but now countries in the region have decided to ignore the Western diktats and extend the hand of friendship toward each other and work to advance the interests of the region,” the lawmaker told Anadolu, referring to Persian Gulf normalizations.

Najah Mohammad Ali, a prominent commentator on Iran, told Anadolu that Israeli attacks on Iranian sites in Syria have key goals -- to prevent the formation of a “massive Iranian military base” in the Arab country and to prevent the “supply of weapons” to Lebanon’s Hezbollah group.

He said Iran has been seeking to establish a “comprehensive air defense network” in Syria and has already sent equipment and personnel to help set up the system. This, he said, is part of the grand plan to expand the “complex network of tunnels” from Syria to Lebanon to Palestine.

All these developments are taking place amid the normalization drive in the Persian Gulf region, with Iran and Syria taking steps to revitalize ties with their Arab neighbors.

Ali, however, is of the opinion that the Iran-Saudi Arabia detente “will not affect the Abraham Accords” --- normalization between Israel and Arab countries.

“The normalization of Saudi-Iran relations was encouraged by the United States, and one of its goals is to prepare the ground for Saudi Arabia's accession to the Abraham Accords at a later stage and to ensure that Iran does not object to it,” he told Anadolu.

“As the joint statement in Beijing mentioned, Saudi Arabia and Iran (agreed to) respect their respective political decisions.”

- Iran’s ties with Syria

On Tuesday, days after the latest Israeli airstrikes, Iran’s Deputy Defense Minister Hamzeh Qalandari said Tehran feels “obliged” to help boost Syria’s air defense capabilities.

His remarks came more than one month after Iran’s state television announced in a report an agreement between Tehran and Damascus on the delivery of air defense systems following a visit of a high-ranking Syrian military delegation to the Iranian capital.

Iran, which has been a staunch supporter of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, has assisted the Arab country militarily for years, much to the chagrin of the US and its allies, including Israel.

Last month, the US conducted airstrikes on Iran-linked bases in eastern Syria’s Deir ez-Zour province in response to a drone attack that led to the killing of an American contractor in northeastern Syria.

“This recent escalation in Syria does not augur well for peace and stability in the region and can also potentially affect reconciliation deals between Iran and its Persian Gulf neighbors,” Alireza Pourmohammadi, a strategic affairs analyst, told Anadolu.

He said the Israeli airstrikes, in particular, have to be seen in the context of Iran’s “continued support to anti-Israel groups in Lebanon and Palestine” with Syria being the “facilitator.”

“As statements by Israeli officials attest, they won’t allow Iran to expand its arc of influence in Syria and Lebanon and support the Palestinian resistance,” said Pourmohammadi.