Iran presidential election: Who are the frontrunners?

By Syed Zafar Mehdi

TEHRAN, Iran (AA) – With just a few days left for Iran’s June 28 snap presidential election, six candidates are making last-ditch efforts to woo voters with attractive manifestos.

The six candidates approved by the Guardian Council, the country’s top election supervisory body, include the parliament speaker, a former nuclear negotiator, two ex-ministers, and two former lawmakers.

Opinion polls conducted in recent weeks by both state and non-state bodies suggest at least three of them are locked in a close fight, two from the conservative camp and one from the reformist side.

The competition at the moment appears to be focused on Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the two-time parliament speaker, Saeed Jalili, the former lead nuclear negotiator and head of Iran’s top security body, and Masoud Pezeshkian, the former health minister.

- Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf

Qalibaf filed his nomination on June 3, the last day of registration, just a week after he was re-elected as the parliament speaker.

Speaking to reporters after the process, Qalibaf said he intends to continue the unfinished work of the previous government led by Ebrahim Raisi.

Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in northwestern Iran on May 19 along with other officials, including Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

Qalibaf, a former commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Air Force, rose to national fame during his 12-year term as mayor of the capital Tehran between 2005 and 2017.

He ran for the presidency twice before in 2013 and 2017.

In the first bid, he ended up second behind eventual winner Hassan Rouhani, while the second time, he withdrew in favor of Raisi, who also lost to Rouhani.

In opinion polls before the televised debates started last week, Qalibaf was placed well above other contenders.

However, after five debates in which presidential hopefuls presented their plans, Jalili and Pezeshkian have raced ahead of him.

Qalibaf is considered a conservative figure in Iranian political circles.

Analysts say he is not opposed to negotiations with the West but does not trust the US, and seeks to follow Raisi’s neighborhood-centric foreign policy.

- Saeed Jalili

Jalili was one of the first to throw his hat in the ring after many unsuccessful bids over past years.

The veteran conservative political figure praised the late Iranian president for his work, while referring to the “historic opportunity” facing the Iranian nation.

Among Jalili’s notable assignments was leading the country’s nuclear negotiations with the US between 2007 and 2013 under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

His deputy at the time was Ali Bagheri Kani, the incumbent acting foreign minister.

At the same time, he also served as the head of the Supreme National Security Council, the country’s top security body.

In 2013, he made his first bid for the presidency and finished third.

In 2021, he joined the race but pulled out in favor of the eventual winner Raisi.

Jalili has been one of the most vocal opponents of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which he has highlighted in his televised campaign, including debates.

Both Jalili and Qalibaf belong to the conservative camp but each has their loyal support base, which according to experts, is likely to divide the conservative vote if one of them does not withdraw before June 28.

In latest opinion polls, including one by the state broadcaster, Jalili appears to have made significant gains, racing past Qalibaf, which has surprised many pundits.

- Masoud Pezeshkian

A seasoned parliamentarian from the northwestern city of Tabriz, Pezeshkian has become a dark horse in the race for president as the only reformist contender.

He served as health minister from 2001 to 2005 under ex-President Mohammad Khatami and has been promoting his future government as an extension of that administration.

A cardiologist by training, Pezeshkian previously also headed the Tabriz University of Medical Sciences, one of the leading medical institutions in northern Iran.

His two previous bids for the presidency were in 2013 and 2021.

In 2013, he withdrew in favor of Hashemi Rafsanjani, and in 2021, his candidacy was rejected by the Guardian Council, the top vetting body.

As the only reformist candidate in the race, backed by the country’s top reformist coalition, Pezeshkian has been engaged in hectic campaigning over the past few weeks.

His campaign has been bolstered by the presence of many former ministers, including Javad Zarif, who served as Iran’s foreign minister for two terms under Rouhani.

Opinion polls also show significant support for Pezeshkian, especially after the first four televised debates in which he has been vocal about issues such as sanctions and hijab.

- Tight race on the cards

This election is widely expected to a tight race, unlike 2021, when the main conservative candidate Raisi was way ahead of other contenders in pre-election polls, including two reformists.

Despite the rejection of prominent reformist figures by the Guardian Council, including former Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, Pezeshkian’s presence in the race augurs well for reformists, according to experts.

“Pezeshkian is not the most popular reformist but he is more recognizable and acceptable than Abdolnasser Hemmati (reformist opponent of Raisi in 2021), and that’s why people are rallying behind him,” Javad Rostami, a political commentator based in Tehran, told Anadolu.

Unlike Qalibaf and Jalili, Pezeshkian enjoys the “near-total support” of reformists, Rastomi said, adding that the two conservatives face a “difficult choice.”

The analyst said a second round of voting “looks very likely” at the moment.

According to latest polls, if one of Qalibaf or Jalili does not pull out in favor of the other, Pezeshkian is “positioned very strongly to take it to the second round,” he added.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​