Ismail Haniyeh’s assassination: What does it mean for Hamas?

By Rabia Ali

ISTANBUL (AA) – The assassination of Ismail Haniyeh has sent shockwaves around the world, casting uncertainty over the future of Hamas and the broader regional dynamics.

Haniyeh was killed in the Iranian capital Tehran on Wednesday after attending the inauguration of President Masoud Pezeshkian, in what Hamas termed “a treacherous Zionist raid.”

As questions swirl about the fallout of his death, analysts say it will not impact Hamas’ political activities nor affect the wider Palestinian struggle against Israeli occupation.

“Hamas has been known to actually adapt and for its flexibility to choose and fix the loss of their political leadership,” Palestinian social and political scientist Abdalhadi Alijla told Anadolu.

He believes Haniyeh’s assassination could give Hamas “more strength” and make it “more popular publicly.”

His assassination could prove for “the majority of Arabs, the Arab youth and the Palestinians that Israel targets even the most pragmatic leadership,” said Alijla, a senior fellow at the Arab Reform Initiative.

“Ismail Haniyeh was the negotiator and one of the most popular figures among Palestinians. He was also the most pragmatic when it comes to the two-state solution,” the analyst said.

Alijla pointed out that targeting Hamas leaders, especially the political bureau, has been an Israeli strategy since 2002, including its founder Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and other key figures such as Ismail Abu Shanab.

“The impact as we can see is that Hamas has developed so much that it now has a sophisticated military wing, but also have a semi-democratic shura (council), a political system,” he said.

“They have internal elections ... they have a council ... they will meet and decide who is going to be the leader of the political bureau of Hamas.”

In the meantime, the group could possibly appoint someone in a transitional leadership role, he added.

As for the Palestinian cause, Alijla said Haniyeh’s assassination will only serve to reinforce “what Hamas believed for a long time, which is that military and armed resistance is the only way.”

He said Israel killed many leaders of Fatah and the Palestine Liberation Organization from the 1960s to the early 1990s, but it had no effect on the Palestinian cause.

“The Palestinian struggle for liberation is not conditioned with one leadership or another, or a political party or another,” he added.

- Impact on Gaza cease-fire talks

Political commentator Chris Doyle concurred with Alijla’s assessment, stressing that Haniyeh’s assassination “will not materially weaken Hamas” as the group has other figures to replace him.

On the regional and other implications, he warned the situation is now “very dangerous.”

He said the attack on Haniyeh “shows that the Israeli leadership is prepared to escalate and risk a major regional war.”

“There’s little chance that the situation in Gaza will improve or that Hamas will be more minded to push for a cease-fire. There is also unlikely a political resolution to the carnage in Gaza,” said Doyle, director of the Council for Arab-British Understanding (Caabu).

He added that it is “not impossible that Israel will try to carry out further assassinations.”

According to Alijla, there is unlikely to be any negotiations on a cease-fire in the coming days.

“We don’t know when negotiations will resume, how they will start,” he said.

The issue is not only about Hamas and Gaza anymore, and it is “more a regional conflict,” he said.

“Actually, Netanyahu is driving the whole world and threatening the safety and security of international system, and endangering world peace,” he added.