Israel will refrain from direct action against Houthis until international coalition acts: Experts

By Esra Tekin

ISTANBUL (AA) - Tensions are flaring in the Red Sea as the Houthis, an armed Yemeni group, have been launching attacks on commercial vessels going through its southern entryway, leading many firms to reroute away from the global shipping chokepoint.

The US has since unveiled that it will be leading an international patrol force in response to the missiles and drone strikes that the Houthis have been launching in the wake of Israel's ongoing war in the Gaza Strip, affecting oil and fuel shipments through one of the world’s busiest maritime passages.

Even if the attacks directly impact Israel's Eilat Port, a major maritime gateway into the country's south via the Gulf of Aqaba which opens into the Red Sea, Tel Aviv will likely refrain from taking action against the Houthis until the coalition acts, according to Elisabeth Kendall, a British professor and former UN envoy to Yemen.

“I don't think Israel has the bandwidth or capacity to respond to what's happening from Yemen directly. It will need to mobilize and work with its allies in particular, US,” Kendall, who is a senior research fellow in Arabic and Islamic studies at Pembroke College at Oxford University, told Anadolu in an interview.

However, according to Yonatan Freeman, an expert in international relations at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel may step in if it feels the international community "doesn't do enough" to stop Houthi's attacks.

While noting that, for now, Israel is "more likely to wait and see what exactly the coalition does," the country wants a “strong military response” to stop the attacks and deter the Houthis from future strikes.

But any military response, either by Israel or the coalition, may face limitations amid reluctance to become entangled in another Middle Eastern conflict, according to Kendall, who laid out three potential options to handling the situation.

"First is to beef up the international maritime force and the Red Sea to police the Red Sea. The second is to undertake in direct warfare measures, a kind of hybrid war. So that means it's deniable.

"And the third is perhaps limited, and highly targeted strikes against the Houthis. Against their launch sites, and maybe military installations," she explained, adding that a diplomatic option also existed, albeit a tenuous one, possibly unfolding through Oman's efforts to de-escalate with the Houthis or as part of the ongoing discussions between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia.

But any diplomatic push to resolve the situation would be limited by the low degree of external influence over the Houthis, said Kendall, who also heads a grassroots non-governmental organization in eastern Yemen.

For Freeman, the potential role for diplomacy is restricted to international efforts against the Houthis, pointing to the example of the newly-founded coalition.

Both experts agree that while the Houthi attacks are impacting Israel, it is the international community that is affected most, causing increasing problems in financial markets, while consumers have faced prices hikes due to rising transportation prices.

Kendall stressed that the situation puts pressure on Israel as the Houthis, currently “holding the cards,” have strategically targeted “sweet spots,” disrupting international shipping and garnering global attention for Palestine.

On the other hand, Freeman said Houthi attacks on Eilat causes have led the Israel navy to boost its presents and activities.

"I won't be surprised if they are already number of Israeli navy assets in the area, some of the activities are happening to wait and see what international community does. Israel has the ability to respond attacks on the sea, also by air," he added.

Kendall further said that even if the Houthis pause briefly in order to feel out how far they can go without triggering a harsher reaction, they will eventually press on in their attacks, taking care to keep them calibrated so they do not lose international attention.

“I don't think that they would stop because they're getting what they want. All they will do is try to make sure that they stay on the side of avoiding all out warfare,” she said.

“I have no doubt that Israel will use force via its allies. But I think it will try to avoid using force in a way that could escalate into an all-out regional war.

“And that's why I think that indirect measures or measures of hybrid war, that are deniable, a kind of cold war, and perhaps targeted strikes that we know, is by Israel and its allies, but perhaps they don't admit to them,” she added.

While warning of the high risk of an "all-out" regional war, she downplayed the threat of a “hot war,” barring error or miscalculation between the coalition and Houthis.

The main power behind the Houthis, according to Freeman, is Iran, which gives the group the green light to operate as part their "desire to widening conflict in Gaza into a regional war."

Both the Houthis and Iran have previously denied allegations, with Tehran rejecting Western assertions of providing material support to the Houthis or directing them.

On a possible solution to the attacks, Freeman said Israel may hold talks with the non-Houthi Yemeni government, which itself has long been embroiled in armed conflict with the group.

Alternatively, Israel may take action to fortify the coalition, alongside nations such as Saudi Arabia and the US.

However, he added: “This is a problem that Israel accepts that the international community is responding. If it doesn’t response, this a beginning of more and more of these events.”