Israeli analysts warn of risks of comprehensive military action in Lebanon

By Abdelraouf Arnaout

JERUSALEM (AA) - Israeli analysts have voiced concerns that the US is working to prevent Israel from launching a large-scale military operation in Lebanon ahead of the US presidential elections in November.

Recent days have seen a noticeable increase in exchanges of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border, coupled with a deadlock in negotiations over a hostage swap and cease-fire in Gaza.

Amos Harel, a military affairs analyst for the daily Haaretz, noted that US Ambassador Amos Hochstein is expected to return to Israel and Lebanon in the coming days in another attempt to end the stalemate in the north with Hezbollah despite the deadlock in Gaza.

Harel added that “the stalemate in the negotiations for a cease-fire deal in Gaza is again raising the level of danger in northern Israel.”

He explained that “Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah wanted to see whether progress would be made in the talks between Israel and Hamas. But in the absence of any change in the status of the negotiations, Hezbollah is again expanding the targets at which it fires rockets and drones.”

He further noted: “Israel, too, is not standing idly by. On Thursday, a foreign media report claimed that the aerial attack this week on an arms manufacturing facility in Masyaf, in central Syria, was actually a cover for the landing of an Israeli commando force that operated on the ground, killing Syrian soldiers and Iranian advisers, and striking at important infrastructures related to Hezbollah's precision weapons project.”

Harel attributed the escalation of Israeli attacks to increased pressure from residents in northern border areas who have been displaced since Oct. 8. He criticized the government for not providing clear answers or timelines for their return, suggesting that military actions are meant to show concern, despite limited real-world impact.

Political analyst Nadav Eyal, writing for the daily Yedioth Ahronoth, emphasized the significant increase in tension due to the situation in northern Israel.

He stated that Israel has intensified its military responses against Hezbollah in Lebanon to force the group to halt its attacks.

Strategically, Israel aims to separate the conflict in the south (Gaza) from tensions in the north (Lebanon) and avoid a full-scale war with Hezbollah. Despite these efforts, Hezbollah has rejected negotiations, particularly those led by Hochstein, according to Eyal.

He further said Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah insists that Israel stops the war in Gaza for Hezbollah to stop its attacks on Israel’s northern front.

Eyal noted that increasing public and political pressure within Israel is pushing calls for a more aggressive military response against Hezbollah.

However, both American and Israeli officials acknowledge that a comprehensive military operation in Lebanon might not guarantee an end to Hezbollah’s attacks. There is also concern that Iran might join Hezbollah and escalate the conflict.

“The US is deeply concerned about the increasing risk of a wider regional conflict, particularly with the upcoming presidential elections,” said Eyal, emphasizing that preventing this escalation, securing hostage releases, and ending the Gaza war are top priorities for the Biden administration.

Efforts to mediate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas have faced significant obstacles due to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing the war in Gaza. Despite these hurdles, mediation by Qatar, Egypt, and the US continues in an effort to achieve a cease-fire and a hostage exchange.

Tensions have spiked along Lebanon's border with Israel amid cross-border attacks between Hezbollah and Israeli forces as Tel Aviv presses ahead with an offensive against the Gaza Strip which has killed more than 41,100 people since Oct. 7 last year following a cross-border attack by the Palestinian resistance group Hamas.​​​​​​​

* Writing by Ikram Kouachi in Ankara