Israeli army may need 45 days to complete ground operation in Gaza: Military analyst

By Abdelraouf Arnaout

JERUSALEM (AA) - The Israeli army may need at least a month and a half to complete its ground operation in Gaza, yet the US hopes it will wrap up in a shorter time, a senior Israeli military expert said Monday.

"The military estimates that it can complete this complex maneuver in about a month and a half. The US administration is likely hoping that the military can wrap up its operations in about three weeks," Amos Harel said in an opinion piece published in Israel’s Haaretz daily.

"Concurrently, a decision will have to be made whether to expand the operation in the south to areas where the military has yet to operate. Those areas include Rafah and the refugee camps in central Gaza," he said.

Harel said that once the broad ground offensive comes to an end, which has so far included heavy aerial assaults, the third phase of the military operation in Gaza "is supposed to come."

"The third phase will also entail a prolonged, intensive series of raids targeted at depriving Hamas of its remaining military assets," he said.

He added, however, that the Israeli army’s plan for phase three will be complex, as it will have to tackle two major problems.

"The first challenge will be how to sell the army's achievements as a success to the Israeli public, considering the downshift in the offensive," he said, noting that still the army must achieve its main objectives of the ground operation including the release of hostages and the surrender of Hamas members.

"If no members of the (Hamas) organization's senior command are killed, chiefly Yahya Sinwar – will public opinion accept the reduction in the war's intensity?" Harel said.

He noted, however, that if Israel manages to do so, it will then "open the possibility of accelerating a hostage exchange deal as well."

As for the second challenge, he said it relies on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who "adamantly refuses" to discuss the fourth phase, which is the outcome of the war on Gaza, known as "the day after."

Harel said Netanyahu's refusal to open discussions on this phase amounts to a "lack of strategic clarity and hinders the achievement of the war's aims."

"His behavior also exacerbates tensions with the US administration, which seeks to coordinate its position with Israel," he said.

On several occasions, Netanyahu has made it clear that he will not allow the Palestinian Authority to have a role in ruling Gaza after the war ends and Israel manages to topple Hamas from power in Gaza.

Netanyahu's position contradicts the US’s announced position which has stressed several times that there must be a Palestinian authority or government in Gaza in the post-war period.

"Since the outbreak of the war, Israel has been receiving enormous amounts of munitions and equipment from the Americans,” Harel said, but noted that the fighting in dense urban areas will voraciously consume munitions.

If Israel is dragged into a war with the Lebanese Hezbollah group, he said, it will require “enormous amounts of advanced weaponry" from the US.

Israel resumed its military offensive on the Gaza Strip on Dec. 1 after the end of a week-long humanitarian pause with the Palestinian group Hamas.

At least 18,205 Palestinians have been killed and more than 49,645 others injured in relentless air and ground attacks on the enclave since Oct. 7 following a cross-border attack by Hamas.

The Israeli death toll in the Hamas attack stood at 1,200, according to official figures.

*Writing by Ahmed Asmar