KDP-PUK coalition likely in Iraq's Kurdish regional government

By Bekir Aydogan, Heman Hussein Yaseen, and Emrah Akbulak

ERBIL (AA) – The recently held Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) elections point toward a likely coalition between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP), which retained its lead, and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which secured the second position.

Held on Oct. 20 after a two-year delay, the elections saw the New Generation Movement and the Kurdistan Islamic Union Party (Yekgirtu) finish in third and fourth place, respectively. Once results are certified, the leading party will have 90 days to form a government, with coalition talks expected to begin shortly thereafter.

- Boycotts and fraud allegations

The KDP, which holds 39 seats, needs 12 more for a governing majority in the 100-seat parliament. Preliminary results showed 23 seats for PUK, 15 for New Generation, seven for Yekgirtu, three for the Kurdistan Justice Group (Komel), four for the Halwest (Durush) Movement, two for the People’s Front and one each for Goran and the Kurdistan Alliance Group.

New Generation and Yekgirtu have announced they will not participate in the new government. Komel has also declared a parliamentary boycott because of alleged election fraud, which, if confirmed, could affect seat distribution. Additional claims of fraud have been raised by the Kurdistan Islamic Movement, Durush, Goran and the People’s Front. The Independent High Electoral Commission of Iraq is reviewing the complaints.

- Coalition options

To ensure stability, the KDP is expected to seek an alliance with the PUK. A coalition including the PUK and five quota seats would give the KDP a majority, with 33 seats remaining in opposition. Another possible option could involve including Goran and other smaller parties, echoing the previous government alliance.

New Generation, Yekgirtu and Komel’s likely opposition, however, would limit the coalition options. With established influence in their respective regions, the KDP and PUK are anticipated to partner for a stable administration, as forming a government without either party is seen as impractical.

In 2018, a similar coalition comprised the KDP, PUK, Goran and representatives from Turkmen and Christian communities, while the New Generation, Yekgirtu and Komel chose to stay in opposition.