Macron’s nuclear expansion is ‘most significant shift’ in France’s deterrence since Cold War: Expert

By Beyza Binnur Donmez

GENEVA (AA) - French President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to increase the number of nuclear warheads in the country’s arsenal and explore forward deployment of French nuclear-capable forces represents a historic shift in France’s deterrence strategy, according to a senior security analyst.

In written remarks shared with several media outlets, including Anadolu, Tomas Nagy, a senior research fellow on nuclear, space and missile defense at the GLOBSEC think tank, described Macron’s indication of potential forward deployment of French nuclear-capable forces as "one of the most significant shifts in France’s deterrence posture since the end of the Cold War."

Macron said Monday that he had ordered an increase in the number of nuclear warheads and would no longer disclose the size of the country’s stockpile, framing the change as part of what he called "advanced deterrence." He also outlined plans for enhanced cooperation with Germany and consultations with additional European nations including Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark.

Nagy said Russia’s war against Ukraine and Moscow’s repeated nuclear signaling have reshaped how nuclear deterrence is viewed in Europe, with a greater emphasis on managing escalation risks.

He noted that while the US shows "no signs of military nuclear retrenchment from Europe," political cohesion within NATO has "clearly weakened," prompting some European states to consider additional layers of deterrence that reinforce the European pillar within a NATO-centric framework.

"European allies are not looking to replace the United States in this role," Nagy said, "but what they are seeking is an additional layer of deterrence."

He added that recent developments present France with an opportunity to demonstrate leadership in Europe’s security architecture. However, he cautioned that credibility will depend on whether Paris moves beyond political signaling toward tangible reassurance measures, such as joint exercises, operational deployments and structured consultation mechanisms with allies.

France has traditionally been cautious in adjusting its nuclear doctrine, Nagy said, meaning that even limited operational steps, including temporary deployments or deeper cooperation with European partners, could carry strategic weight.

- France 'cannot replace US nuclear role' soon

Nagy stressed that despite the current momentum, France cannot replace the US’s nuclear role in Europe in the near future.

"In the near and medium term, France cannot substitute for the American nuclear role in Europe due to scale and capability differences. But over the long run, there is space for a stronger European dimension to emerge. For that purpose, the active role of France is indispensable," he said.

He described the broader shift as psychological as much as strategic.

"Perhaps the most important shift is psychological: the fact that European leaders are now openly debating nuclear deterrence adaptation would have been politically unthinkable just a few years ago," Nagy said.

At the same time, he cautioned that European governments must handle the discussion carefully to avoid undermining confidence in Washington's security guarantees.

"European policymakers will need to manage this debate carefully to avoid creating a self-fulfilling narrative of declining confidence in US extended deterrence," he added.