Mozambique political crisis: Could South Africa, regional mediators break the deadlock?

By Hassan Isilow

JOHANNESBURG (AA) – As Mozambique stands at a critical juncture in its political future, analysts are pinning hopes for a resolution on mediation by regional actors.

After the Southern African Development Community (SADC) failed to achieve a breakthrough at last month’s extraordinary summit in Zimbabwe, Mozambique’s neighbor South Africa has now taken up the role of negotiator.

Ministers from South Africa and Mozambique are meeting in the northeastern border town of Malelane, aiming to iron out a framework of engagement that could lead to a lasting solution.

The unrest began in late October, after the election commission declared Daniel Chapo, the 47-year-old candidate from the ruling Mozambique Liberation Front (Frelimo), as the winner of the Oct. 9 election.

Chapo, according to the official count, had 71% of the vote, defeating opposition candidate Venancio Mondlane of the Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique (Podemos), who garnered 20%.

Mondlane rejected the results, alleging widespread vote rigging and calling on his supporters to protest, and Mozambique now awaits the Constitutional Council’s ruling on the disputed presidential election, set for Dec. 23.

More than 110 people have been killed since protests erupted on Oct. 21, according to Plataforma Eleitoral Decide, a group that monitors elections in the Southern African country.

Rights groups have accused Mozambican security forces of using excessive violence in quelling the protests.

“Enough is enough. For more than 50 days, Mozambique’s Frelimo-led government has refused to end its bloody crackdown on protesters,” Khanyo Farise, Amnesty International’s deputy director for East and Southern Africa, said in a statement last week.

“Regardless of who won the election or their political views, everyone in Mozambique has the right to freedom of peaceful assembly. The authorities’ flagrant, continued and escalating use of unnecessary and unlawful force against protesters must cease immediately.”

- ‘Helpful starting point’

South Africa’s Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola is leading a delegation to meet with Mozambican ministers for bilateral discussions on the crisis.

Rich Mashimbye, a researcher at the University of Johannesburg’s Institute for Pan-African Thought and Conversation, expressed cautious optimism about the talks.

“The meeting could be a helpful starting point to resolving the crisis, but the expectation is that it would evolve to the level of heads of state and leaders of the opposition later,” he told Anadolu.

“So, it is a ray of hope as far as addressing the conflict is concerned, albeit a normally protracted and time-consuming process.”

Emphasizing that the allegations of rigging made by Mondlane are serious, he suggested that a transparent vote recount involving not just Mozambique’s electoral body but also external actors like the SADC and UN could help de-escalate tensions.

Mashimbye also proposed a power-sharing agreement as a possible resolution, though he questioned whether the ruling Frelimo would consent to such an arrangement.

Zimbabwean academic and political analyst Ibbo Mandaza agreed, noting that power-sharing deals have successfully resolved electoral disputes in other African nations, including Zimbabwe and Kenya.

In Zimbabwe, former South African President Thabo Mbeki mediated a power-sharing deal in 2008-2009, and in Kenya, ex-UN chief Kofi Annan played a similar role in convincing ex-President Mwai Kibaki and then-opposition leader Raila Odinga to sign an agreement in 2008.

However, Mandaza believes the SADC does not have the right leadership at this point to facilitate useful talks.

He said Zimbabwe, the current chair of the bloc, is accused of meddling in the electoral affairs of other SADC states such as Botswana and Namibia, eroding its credibility and ability to intervene in Mozambique.

On possible alternatives, he said: “Perhaps the African Union, or leaders like former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta or Thabo Mbeki could step in.”

- Judiciary under scrutiny

The Constitutional Council’s upcoming ruling on the disputed election is expected to be pivotal, but skepticism looms over its impartiality.

“The prevalent perception in Mozambique is that state institutions like the judiciary and the election commission exist to serve the political interests of Frelimo,” said Mashimbye.

He warned that if the ruling upholds the election results, the opposition may see it as further evidence of judicial bias, exacerbating the conflict.

Beyond the election dispute, systemic issues like unemployment, poverty, and inadequate public services are believed to be fueling the protests.

Unemployment and a lack of economic development have been key drivers that likely persuaded many to join the opposition protests, according to Dirk Kotze, a South African political science professor and regional analyst.

Kotze pointed to a growing trend in Southern Africa where voters are increasingly disillusioned with liberation parties that secured their countries’ independence and have held power for long periods.

He cited the African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa and the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP) as examples.

In South Africa, the ANC lost its parliamentary majority for the first time in 30 years during the May elections, leading to a coalition government. Similarly, Botswana’s BDP, in power since 1966, suffered significant losses in the Oct. 30 elections.

“People seem to be tired of revolutionary movements, and they are losing support. It’s a new trend in Southern Africa affecting many countries,” he said.