Oil mixed over bearish data with likely interest rate postponement, oversupply risks

By Duygu Alhan

Oil prices were mixed on Friday as disappointing macroeconomic data in the US signaled delayed interest rate cuts and forecasts of supply fears driven by tensions in the Red Sea put prices under pressure.

The international benchmark crude Brent traded at $82.72 per barrel at 10.13 am local time (0713 GMT), a 0.17% decrease from the closing price of $82.86 a barrel in the previous trading session on Thursday.

The American benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), traded at the same time at $78.06 per barrel, up 0.04% from Thursday's close of $78.03 per barrel.

US Commerce Department data supported price downturns, showing a greater fall in US retail sales than expected while raising expectations of a delay in the Fed’s decision to implement interest rate cuts.

According to the department, US retail sales dropped 0.8% to $700.3 billion in January, contrary to market estimations of a decline of 0.2%.

Additionally, data released by the country's Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday exceeded forecasts of a rise of around 8.5 million barrels but relayed an increase of 12 million barrels to 439.4 million barrels last week.

This data indicated market oversupply, and bearish data released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its oil market report on Thursday also signaled a supply glut for 2024.

According to the IEA report, global oil demand is forecast to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) to 103 million bpd this year, while global oil supply is forecast to stand at 103.8 million bpd in 2024.

- Geopolitical risks exert upward price pressure

However, the conflict in the Red Sea and the Middle East continues to put supplies at risk, bolstering price upticks.

The Yemeni Houthi group said Thursday that the US and UK conducted airstrikes on Hodeidah province in western Yemen, the second raid of the day on the province.

With these escalating tensions from the airstrikes, the Houthi group declared that it considered all American and British ships to be legitimate military targets.

The Houthis have been targeting cargo ships in the Red Sea owned or operated by Israeli companies or those transporting goods to and from Israel in solidarity with Gaza, which has been under an Israeli onslaught since Oct. 7.

A coalition led by the US has conducted intermittent airstrikes since Jan. 12 that have targeted "Houthi locations" in parts of Yemen in response to the attacks in the Red Sea.

The US response has been occasionally met with counter-responses from the group.