Oil prices dip on China demand concerns amid inflation slowdown

By Duygu Alhan

Oil prices fell on Monday, driven by concerns over a potential decrease in demand from China, the world’s second-largest oil consumer, following data indicating a slowdown in inflation.

International benchmark Brent crude dropped by 1.4% to $77.50 per barrel at 10.45 am local time (0745GMT), down from its previous session close of $78.60. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 0.82% to $73.65 per barrel after closing at $74.84 in the prior session.

In China, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a modest increase of 0.4% year-over-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined by 2.8%. The data reflects a lingering deflationary trend, with consumer prices stagnating and producer prices continuing to fall, signaling weaker economic momentum and dampening expectations for oil demand.

The downward pressure on oil prices outweighed concerns about potential supply disruptions stemming from conflicts in the Middle East, a region responsible for much of the world’s oil production.

In the US, data showed inflationary pressures may be easing. The Producer Price Index remained flat on a monthly basis in September, falling below forecasts, while it rose by 1.8% year-over-year, slightly above expectations. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% month-on-month and 2.8% year-on-year, aligning with or exceeding forecasts.

Meanwhile, market expectations are growing that the US Federal Reserve may leave interest rates unchanged in its upcoming meeting. Speculation is also mounting that the Fed might implement two 25 basis point rate cuts by year-end, which could weaken the dollar and, in turn, bolster global oil demand.