Oil prices down amid cease-fire expectations in Middle East

By Duygu Alhan

Oil prices decreased on Monday with expectations that cease-fire talks in the Middle East could yield positive results and data indicating an economic slowdown in China, the world's top oil importer.

The international oil benchmark of Brent crude fell 0.85% to $74 per barrel at 10.57 a.m. local time (0757 GMT), down from the previous session's close of $74.64.

The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate also decreased by 0.99% to $70.40 per barrel, compared to $71.11 at the prior session's close.

According to the Israeli Broadcasting Authority (KAN), Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has agreed to a US-backed cease-fire with Lebanon. Citing an Israeli source, the public broadcaster reported that Netanyahu authorized US envoy Amos Hochstein to proceed with the cease-fire agreement, which is expected to be announced within two days.

Israeli sources claimed that the deal with Lebanon is already finalized and Netanyahu is now focusing on how to present it to the public.

Meanwhile, anticipated strengthening of the US dollar and the threat of high tariffs during US President-elect Donald Trump’s second term are expected to affect oil prices.

Additionally, the economic slowdown in China, the world's largest oil importer, is exerting further downward pressure on oil prices.

Investors are closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic data from the US this week, as well as the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on Nov. 6-7, which will be released Tuesday. These minutes are expected to provide insights into the future policies of the US Federal Reserve (Fed).

It is currently estimated that the Fed has a 53% chance of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points next month, while there is a 47% probability that the policy rate will remain unchanged.