Oil prices down following stronger US dollar, Mideast cease-fire

By Duygu Alhan

Oil prices fell on Thursday following the cease-fire agreement in the Middle East which eased supply concerns among investors, while a stronger US dollar and fears that rising tariffs could disrupt the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) efforts to combat inflation added further downward pressure.

The international oil benchmark of Brent crude fell 0.5% to $71.92 per barrel at 11.03 a.m. local time (0803 GMT), down from the previous session's close of $72.32.

The US benchmark West Texas Intermediate also decreased by 0.5% to $68.26 per barrel, compared to $68.60 at the prior session's close.

Oil prices declined on the expectation that the Israeli government's ratification of a cease-fire agreement with Lebanon, aimed at ending over 14 months of conflict with the Hezbollah group since the onset of the Gaza war, could pave the way for further de-escalation in the region.

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi met in Cairo with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani during which they "affirmed aspiration to building on the cease-fire agreement to reach a comprehensive calm in the region," according to a statement released by the Egyptian presidency.

The meeting also touched on joint efforts aimed at reaching a cease-fire in Gaza, releasing prisoners, and allowing unconditional entry of humanitarian and relief aid to the enclave.

The anticipation of a lasting cease-fire in the broader region, which houses a significant portion of the world's oil reserves, has contributed to recent price declines by alleviating supply concerns among market players.

US President-elect Donald Trump's statement that he will increase tariffs lead to fears that it could disrupt Federal Reserve's (Fed) fight against inflation.

The signals received from the data released on Wednesday strengthen the pricing that the Fed may complete the rate cuts later than anticipated, while it is predicted that the bank may take a break after continuing to cut interest rates in December.

Given these developments, money market pricing indicates a 68% probability that the Fed will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points in December, while there is a 32% probability that the policy rate will remain unchanged.

Also, the rise of the US dollar against other currencies is expected to lower demand by making oil more expensive for those who use foreign currencies. The US dollar index, which measures the US dollar's value against other currencies, increased 0.25% to 106.34.