Oil prices rise amid Middle East conflicts, demand expectations

By Duygu Alhan

Oil prices increased on Monday amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and expectations that rising economic activity in the world’s largest oil-consuming countries, the US and China, will boost oil demand. However, the possibility of Saudi Arabia increasing oil production in December limited further price hikes.

International benchmark Brent crude rose by 0.02% to $71.95 per barrel at 10:40 a.m. local time (0740 GMT), up from the previous session's close of $71.93. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by 0.16% to $68.32 per barrel after closing at $68.43 in the prior session.

Meanwhile, analysts anticipate that upcoming employment data will provide clues about the US Federal Reserve's next steps and further insight into the US economy. Lower-than-expected inflation indicators in the US have raised expectations that the Fed may focus on supporting the labor market and continue to cut interest rates.

The expectation that the Fed will cut rates by 75 basis points by the end of the year remains strong, with a 54% likelihood of a 50 basis point cut in November. These interest rate cuts are expected to boost economic activity and oil demand.

The expectation that the steps taken by China to increase economic mobility will positively affect the oil demand in the country supports the increase in prices.

Additionally, expectations that steps taken by China to increase economic mobility will positively affect oil demand in the country support the rise in prices. Economic incentives announced by the Chinese government last week are positively influencing markets, and the government has indicated that banks will reduce mortgage interest rates to address current issues in the housing sector.

On the other hand, expectations that Saudi Arabia, the largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), will ramp up output in December to reclaim market share have capped gains.

In June, the OPEC+ group, which includes OPEC members and other major producers like Russia, agreed to extend voluntary cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day until September, with a gradual phase-out planned until September 2025.

However, Saudi Arabia’s policy appears to be shifting toward a supply increase, as output from non-OPEC producers and weaker global demand offset the group’s efforts to maintain higher prices.