Oil prices rise on hopes of US rate cuts, Middle East tensions

By Duygu Alhan

Oil prices increased on Monday, driven by mounting hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower interest rates and growing tension in the Middle East while recession fears in the US limited further price increases.

Brent crude, the international benchmark, increased by 0.6%, reaching $71.82 per barrel at 10:42 a.m. local time (0742 GMT), up from $71.37 in the previous session. Similarly, US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 0.6% to $68.07 per barrel, up from its previous close of $67.67.

Anticipation over the Federal Reserve's next moves is playing a critical role in influencing oil prices. On Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated that the time was right to start lowering interest rates, signaling openness to significant rate cuts.

“The collective set of economic data indicates to me that the labor market and the economy are performing solidly,” Waller said, pointing to growth and job creation with inflation near 2%. He added that if the data supports it, he would back consecutive rate cuts.

Market analysts now expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points this month and potentially by 100 basis points by the end of the year. A rate cut could weaken the US dollar, making oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies, which in turn boosts demand.

In addition, concerns about the ongoing conflict in the Middle East further pushed oil prices upward. Over the weekend, Yemeni Houthi forces claimed they had shot down a US MQ-9 drone conducting "hostile activities" over Marib province. The Houthis framed the move as part of their broader support for Palestine and defense of Yemen.

Despite these price increases, recession concerns in the US, the world's largest oil consumer, tempered further gains. The US Labor Department reported that the economy added 142,000 jobs in August, falling short of the forecasted 164,000. July’s job numbers were also revised downward, stoking fears of a slowdown.

Analysts are now focused on upcoming inflation data, which could provide more insight into the size of the rate cuts expected at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Sept. 17-18.